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Role of stratospheric dynamics in the ozone–carbon connection in the Southern Hemisphere

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Abstract

The role of stratospheric dynamics in past and projected future long-term changes of the Southern Hemisphere climate is examined with a special regard to the oceanic carbon uptake, by comparing results from two sets of simulations performed with the high-top version and the low-top version of the CMCC-Carbon Earth System Model. An improved description of the stratospheric dynamics results in weakened (~20 to 25 %) annual-mean Southern Ocean air-to-sea carbon fluxes in the 1990–2005 period, with implications for the global ocean carbon uptake. Simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere climate are reproduced in both model simulations and are consistent with numerous previous studies. However, the low-top model is unable to fully capture the observed stratospheric cooling, because the component associated with the changes in stratospheric circulation is missing. Smaller trend of the stratospheric polar vortex found in the low-top model (in response to stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gas changes) is followed by a smaller trend of the poleward-shifted tropospheric jet in the troposphere. The latter implies smaller (~10 %) wind stress increase in the November to February season and a smaller projection on Sea Level Pressure changes. Our results point out the importance of including a proper representation of stratospheric dynamics, at least with a certain degree of detail, in order to obtain more reliable long-term climate simulations and projections in the Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns and air-sea fluxes.

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Acknowledgments

Chiara Cagnazzo is grateful to Bill Randel, Rolando Garcia, Dan Marsh and Natalia Calvo for useful discussions during the preparation of this manuscript. This work was partially funded by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme, under GA226520, COMBINE project. We acknowledge the support of Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, ISAC-CNR, Rome, Italy

    Chiara Cagnazzo

  2. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

    Elisa Manzini

  3. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy

    Chiara Cagnazzo, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Marcello Vichi & Paolo Davini

  4. Ca’ Foscari University, Venice, Italy

    Paolo Davini

  5. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy

    Marcello Vichi

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  1. Chiara Cagnazzo
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  2. Elisa Manzini
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  4. Marcello Vichi
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Correspondence to Chiara Cagnazzo.

Appendix

Appendix

Analysis of temperature and zonal wind trends from two other CMCC model versions: the CMCC-CMS model (Manzini et al. 2012) and the CMCC-CM model (Scoccimarro et al. 2011; Bellucci et al. 2012). The first one is a high-top model with high vertical resolution, top at 0.01 hPa, 95 vertical layers and T63 horizontal resolution; the second one is a low-top model with top at 10 hPa, 31 vertical layers and T159 horizontal resolution. These two models do not include the land-surface and ocean biogeochemistry components (See Figs. 11, 12).

Linear trends of the horizontal and vertical components of the EP-flux divergence in the HT and LT model simulations (See Figs. 13, 14).

Fig. 12
figure 12

As Fig. 4—bottom-left panel panels but for: (left) the CMCC-CMS high-top model; (right) the CMCC-CM low top model

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Fig. 13
figure 13

As Fig. 5 but black contours are trends in the horizontal component of the EP flux divergence (m/s/day/decade), colors are positive (red) and negative (blue) zonal mean zonal wind trends (m/s/decade)

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Fig. 14
figure 14

As Fig. 5 but black contours are trends in the vertical component of the EP flux divergence (m/s/day/decade), colors are positive (red) and negative (blue) zonal mean zonal wind trends (m/s/decade)

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Cagnazzo, C., Manzini, E., Fogli, P.G. et al. Role of stratospheric dynamics in the ozone–carbon connection in the Southern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 41, 3039–3054 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1745-5

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