Abstract
This study examines the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of Indian north-east monsoon rainfall (NEMR). The IAV of NEMR is associated with the warm SST anomaly over east Bay-of-Bengal (BoB) (88.5oE–98.5oE; 8.5oN–15.5oN) and cool SST anomaly over east equatorial Indian Ocean (80.5oE–103.5oE; 6.5oS–3.5oN). The gradient of SST between these boxes (i.e. northern box minus southern box) shows strong and robust association with the Indian NEMR variability in the recent decades. For establishing the teleconnections, SST, mean sea level pressure, North Indian Ocean tropical storm track, and circulation data have been used. The study reveals that during the positive SST gradient years, the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts northwards over the East Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more zonally and strike the southern peninsular India and hence excess NEMR. While, during the negative SST gradient years, the ITCZ shifts southwards over the Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more northwestward direction and after crossing 15oN latitude re-curve to north-east direction towards head BoB and misses southern peninsular India and hence, deficient NEMR.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adler RF et al (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167
Annamalai H, Xie SP, McCreary JP, Murtugudde R (2005) Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Nino. J Clim 18:302–319
Balachandran S, Asokan R, Sridharan S (2006) Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu. J Earth Syst Sci 115(3):349–362. doi:10.1007/BF02702047
Behera SK, Krishnan R, Yamagata T (1999) Unusual ocean atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994. Geophys Res Lett 26:3001–3004
Bhanu Kumar OSRU, Naidu CV, Rao SRL (2004) Influence of southern oscillation and SSTs over Nino-3.4 region on the winter monsoon rainfall over coastal Andhra Predesh. Proc Indian Acad Sci 113:313–319
Chen TC (1985) Global water vapor flux and maintenance during FGGE. Mon Weather Rev 113:1801–1819
De US, Mukhopadhay RK (1999) The effect of ENSO/Anti ENSO on northeast monsoon rainfall. Mausam 50:343–354
Dhar ON, Rakhecha PR (1983) Forecasting northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, India. Mon Weather Rev 111:109–112
Doraiswamy IV (1946) Forecasting the northeast monsoon rainfall of south Madras; Scientific Note No. 98, India Meteorological Department, pp. 147–154
Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin PA, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Janowiak J, McNab A, Rudolf B, Schneider U (1997) The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:5–20
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredel M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Roy Jenne, Dennis Joseph (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–470
Kripalani RH, Kumar P (2004) Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis-a-vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Int J Climatol 24:1267–1282
Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159
Krishnan A (1984) An analysis of trends in the rainfall and droughts occurring in the southwest and northeast monsoon systems in the southern peninsular India. Mausam 35:379–386
Kumar P, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M, Sahai AK (2007) On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Clim Dyn 28:649–660
Nageswara Rao G (1999) Variations of the SO relationship with summer and winter monsoon rainfall over India: 1872–1993. J Climate 12:3486–3495
Nayagam LR, Janardanan R, Ram Mohan HS (2009) Variability and teleconnectivity of northeast monsoon rainfall over India. Global Planet Change 69:225–231
Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K, Munot AA (1993) Homogeneous Indian Monsoon Rainfall: variability and prediction. Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences. Earth Planet Sci Lett 102:121–155
Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1995) All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224
Raj YEA (2003) Onset, withdrawal and intra-seasonal variation of northeast monsoon over coastal Tamil Nadu, 1901–2000. Mausam 53:595–614
Raj YEA, Jamadar SM (1990) Normal dates of onset and withdrawal of southwest and northwest monsoons over southern peninsular India. Vayu Mandal 20:76–84
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Bhate J, Kumar Niranjan K, Sreekala PP (2012) Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction. Meteorol Appl 19(2, SI):226–236
Ramaswamy C (1972) The severe drought over Tamil Nadu during the retreating monsoon period of 1968 and its association with anomalies in the upper level flow pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. India J Meteorol Geophys 23:303–316
Rao KV (1963) A study of the Indian northeast monsoon season. Inda J Meteorol Geophys 14:143–155
Rao Krishna PR, Jagannathan P (1953) A study of the northeast monsoon rainfall of Tamilnadu. Indian J Meteorol Geophy 4:22–43
Rao SA, Chaudhari HS, Pokharel S, Goswami BN (2010) Abnormal Indian summer monsoon of 2008: role of southern Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 23:5163–5174
Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625
Singh N, Sontakke NA (1999) On the variability and prediction of post-monsoon season rainfall over India. Int J Climatol 19:309–339
Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore Jay (2007) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296
Sreekala PP, Vijaya Bhaskara Rao S, Rajeevan M (2012) Northeast monsoon rainfall activity over south peninsular India and its teleconnections. Theor Appl Climatol 108:73–83. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0513-x
Sridharan S, Muthusamy A (1990) Northeast monsoon rainfall in relation to El Ni˜no, QBO and Atlantic hurricane frequency. Vayu Mandal 20:108–111
Srinivasan V, Ramamurthy K (1973) Northeast monsoon. Comprehensive articles on selected topics. Forecasting Manual Part IV, FMU Report No IV-18.4, India Meteorological Department, Poona, India
Xue Y, Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2003) Interdecadal changes of 30-yr SST normals during 1871–2000. J Clim 16:1601–1612
Yadav RK (2009a) Changes in the large-scale features associated with the Indian summer monsoon in the recent decades. Int J Climatol 29:117–133
Yadav RK (2009b) Role of equatorial central Pacific and northwest of North Atlantic 2-metre surface temperatures in modulating Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 32:549–563
Yadav RK (2012) Why is ENSO influencing Indian northeast monsoon in the recent decades? Int J Climatol 32:2163–2180. doi:10.1002/joc.2430
Yadav RK, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M (2009a) Out-of-phase relationships between convection over north-west India and warm-pool region during winter season. Int J Climatol 29:1330–1338. doi:10.1002/joc.1783
Yadav RK, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M (2009b) Increasing influence of ENSO and decreasing influence of AO/NAO in the recent decades over northwest India winter precipitation. J Geophys Res 114:D12112. doi:10.1029/2008JD011318
Yadav RK, Yoo JH, Kucharski F, Abid MA (2010) Why is ENSO influencing northwest India winter precipitation in recent decades? J Clim 23:1979–1993. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3202.1
Zubair L, Ropelewski CF (2006) The strengthening relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka and southern India. J Clim 19:1567–1575
Zubair L, Rao SA, Yamagata T (2003) Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean dipole. Geophys Res Lett 30(2): 35–1–35–4
Acknowledgments
The author is also grateful to the “Development of a Seasonal Prediction System for Indian Monsoon Program” Group, Indian Institute of Tropical meteorology (IITM), for their constant encouragement and kind help. The data have been taken from Web sites. Computational and graphical analyses required for this study have been completed with Ferret, NCL and xmgrace. The author sincerely thanks both the anonymous reviewers, whose comments and critiques improved the quality of the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yadav, R.K. Emerging role of Indian ocean on Indian northeast monsoon. Clim Dyn 41, 105–116 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1637-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1637-0