Climate Dynamics

, Volume 41, Issue 11, pp 2875–2888

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

  • Doug M. Smith
  • Adam A. Scaife
  • George J. Boer
  • Mihaela Caian
  • Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
  • Virginie Guemas
  • Ed Hawkins
  • Wilco Hazeleger
  • Leon Hermanson
  • Chun Kit Ho
  • Masayoshi Ishii
  • Viatcheslav Kharin
  • Masahide Kimoto
  • Ben Kirtman
  • Judith Lean
  • Daniela Matei
  • William J. Merryfield
  • Wolfgang A. Müller
  • Holger Pohlmann
  • Anthony Rosati
  • Bert Wouters
  • Klaus Wyser
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Cite this article as:
Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Boer, G.J. et al. Clim Dyn (2013) 41: 2875. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Abstract

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Keywords

Decadal climate predictionMulti-model ensembleForecast

Supplementary material

382_2012_1600_MOESM1_ESM.doc (86 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 86 kb)

Copyright information

© Crown Copyright 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Doug M. Smith
    • 1
  • Adam A. Scaife
    • 1
  • George J. Boer
    • 2
  • Mihaela Caian
    • 3
  • Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
    • 4
  • Virginie Guemas
    • 4
  • Ed Hawkins
    • 5
  • Wilco Hazeleger
    • 6
    • 13
  • Leon Hermanson
    • 1
  • Chun Kit Ho
    • 5
  • Masayoshi Ishii
    • 7
  • Viatcheslav Kharin
    • 2
  • Masahide Kimoto
    • 8
  • Ben Kirtman
    • 9
  • Judith Lean
    • 10
  • Daniela Matei
    • 11
  • William J. Merryfield
    • 2
  • Wolfgang A. Müller
    • 11
  • Holger Pohlmann
    • 11
  • Anthony Rosati
    • 12
  • Bert Wouters
    • 6
  • Klaus Wyser
    • 3
  1. 1.Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
  2. 2.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment CanadaVictoriaCanada
  3. 3.Rossby CentreSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteNorrköpingSweden
  4. 4.Institut Català de Ciències del ClimaBarcelonaSpain
  5. 5.NCAS-Climate, Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
  6. 6.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)De BiltThe Netherlands
  7. 7.Meteorological Research InstituteJapan Meteorological AgencyTsukubaJapan
  8. 8.Atmosphere and Ocean Research InstituteUniversity of TokyoKashiwaJapan
  9. 9.RSMAS/MPOUniversity of MiamiMiamiUSA
  10. 10.Space Science DivisionNaval Research LaboratoryWashingtonUSA
  11. 11.Max-Planck-Institut für MeteorologieHamburgGermany
  12. 12.Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryPrinceton UniversityPrincetonUSA
  13. 13.Wageningen UniversityWageningenThe Netherlands