Climate Dynamics

, Volume 38, Issue 9, pp 2089–2097

Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction


    • Met Office Hadley Centre
  • Thomas Spangehl
    • Freie Universitaet Berlin
  • David R. Fereday
    • Met Office Hadley Centre
  • Ulrich Cubasch
    • Freie Universitaet Berlin
  • Ulrike Langematz
    • Freie Universitaet Berlin
  • Hideharu Akiyoshi
    • National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • Slimane Bekki
  • Peter Braesicke
    • University of Cambridge
  • Neal Butchart
    • Met Office Hadley Centre
  • Martyn P. Chipperfield
    • School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of Leeds
  • Andrew Gettelman
    • National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • Steven C. Hardiman
    • Met Office Hadley Centre
  • Martine Michou
    • GAME/CNRM (Meteo France, CNRS)
  • Eugene Rozanov
    • PMOD/WRC and ETHZ
  • Theodore G. Shepherd
    • University of Toronto

DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7

Cite this article as:
Scaife, A.A., Spangehl, T., Fereday, D.R. et al. Clim Dyn (2012) 38: 2089. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7


Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections.


Climate changeEuropeStratosphereStorm track

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