Abstract
The southeastern parts of India and Sri Lanka receive substantial rainfall from the northeast monsoon (NEM) during October through December. The interannual variability in NEM rainfall is known to be significantly influenced by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unlike the southwest monsoon (SWM), the NEM rainfall is enhanced during the warm ENSO events, and vice versa. In the context of the recent weakening of the inverse relationship between Southwest Monsoon (SWM) and ENSO, we examine the secular variations in the positive relationship between ENSO and NEM rainfall over South Asia, showing that their relationship has strengthened over the recent years. Based on the analysis of GISST, IMD/CRU precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we suggest that this secular variation of the relationship is due to epochal changes in the tropospheric circulation associated with ENSO over the region.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department (IMD), and Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for providing the necessary facilities and encouragement. The data used in the study are taken from the CRU, courtesy Dr. Mark New, and also from the records of the IMD as processed by the IITM. The authors are indebted to Dr. P.D. Jones, Director, CRU, for carefully going through the manuscript and offering valuable suggestions. The help provided by Dr. K. Krishna Kumar and Dr. A.A. Munot of IITM at various stages of the analysis is also gratefully acknowledged. The free access to GISST and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is greatly appreciated. This work is part of a collaborative research initiative between IMD and IITM, in which one of the authors (P. Kumar) was supported with a research fellowship by the IMD.
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Kumar, P., Rupa Kumar, K., Rajeevan, M. et al. On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Clim Dyn 28, 649–660 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0210-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0210-0