Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 30, Issue 6, pp 1587–1600

Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations

  • Jie Zhang (张洁)
  • Laurent Li
  • Tianjun Zhou (周天军)
  • Xiaoge Xin (辛晓歌)
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-013-2139-7

Cite this article as:
Zhang, J., Li, L., Zhou, T. et al. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2013) 30: 1587. doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2139-7

Abstract

The progress made from Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 to CMIP5) in simulating spring persistent rainfall (SPR) over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d−1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d−1 and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope (0.2°N/°E), whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unrealistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two thermal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.

Key words

model comparisonCMIP3CMIP5spring persistent rainfall (SPR)atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)

Copyright information

© Chinese National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jie Zhang (张洁)
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Laurent Li
    • 2
    • 3
  • Tianjun Zhou (周天军)
    • 1
  • Xiaoge Xin (辛晓歌)
    • 3
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/The Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueUniversité Paris 6ParisFrance
  3. 3.National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina