Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 27, Issue 4, pp 741–749

A new strategy for solving a class of constrained nonlinear optimization problems related to weather and climate predictability

  • Wansuo Duan (段晚锁)
  • Haiying Luo (骆海英)

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-009-9141-0

Cite this article as:
Duan, W. & Luo, H. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2010) 27: 741. doi:10.1007/s00376-009-9141-0


There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.

Key words

constrained nonlinear optimization problemspredictabilityalgorithms

Copyright information

© Chinese National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wansuo Duan (段晚锁)
    • 1
  • Haiying Luo (骆海英)
    • 2
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Training CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina