Environmental Management

, Volume 59, Issue 3, pp 373–392

Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability

  • James W. N. Steenberg
  • Andrew A. Millward
  • David J. Nowak
  • Pamela J. Robinson
  • Alexis Ellis
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00267-016-0782-3

Cite this article as:
Steenberg, J.W.N., Millward, A.A., Nowak, D.J. et al. Environmental Management (2017) 59: 373. doi:10.1007/s00267-016-0782-3

Abstract

The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.

Keywords

Vulnerability assessmenti-Tree forecastEcological modelingStrategic planningDisturbanceScale

Supplementary material

267_2016_782_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx (42 kb)
Supplementary Information
267_2016_782_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (338 kb)
Supplementary Information

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • James W. N. Steenberg
    • 1
    • 2
  • Andrew A. Millward
    • 2
  • David J. Nowak
    • 3
  • Pamela J. Robinson
    • 4
  • Alexis Ellis
    • 5
  1. 1.Environmental Applied Science and ManagementRyerson UniversityTorontoCanada
  2. 2.Urban Forest Research & Ecological Disturbance (UFRED) Group, Department of Geography and Environmental StudiesRyerson UniversityTorontoCanada
  3. 3.Northern Research StationUSDA Forest ServiceSyracuseUSA
  4. 4.School of Urban and Regional PlanningRyerson UniversityTorontoCanada
  5. 5.Davey InstituteSyracuseUSA