, Volume 19, Issue 4, pp 383-384,
Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
Date: 23 Feb 2008

Assessment of 10-year absolute fracture risk: a new paradigm with worldwide application

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In this issue of Osteoporosis International we present several papers representing common approaches to the evaluation of fracture risk [15]. This represents a considerable change for the field, moving from descriptions of risk as “relative risk,” as occurs on the output of DXA equipment, to what might be called “absolute risk” or “real risk,” neither of which is an adequate description. The model allows an assessment of the likelihood of hip or major osteoporosis-related fracture within a specific time frame (10 years) for individual patients.

These analyses result from a “mega-analysis” conducted by a team of investigators on behalf of the World Health Organization, led by Dr John Kanis. In this study Kanis and colleagues took data from epidemiological studies from the USA, Europe, Australia and Asia and determined the factors that were common to all that independently increased the risk of fractures in the aging population. They then modeled overall fracture risk using these factors ...