Empirical Economics

, Volume 45, Issue 2, pp 817–829

Re-examining the “twin deficits” hypothesis: evidence from Australia


DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0628-7

Cite this article as:
Makin, A.J. & Narayan, P.K. Empir Econ (2013) 45: 817. doi:10.1007/s00181-012-0628-7


This paper re-examines the relationship between fiscal imbalances and net foreign borrowing. A general analytical approach is first developed which suggests that, other things equal, a rise (fall) in any advanced economy’s fiscal deficit should be fully matched by a rise (fall) in its net foreign borrowing, in accordance with the so-called twin deficits hypothesis. In the case of Australia, one of the world’s largest foreign borrower economies for its size, empirical estimation yields the novel result that Australia’s consolidated budget imbalance and its foreign borrowing were approximately twinned on the basis of quarterly data for 1983–2009, when Australia’s exchange rate floated and international capital mobility was high. This result is consistent with the conceptual framework and suggests that fiscal policy is likely to be ineffective as an instrument for influencing the real economy.


Fiscal imbalances Twin deficits Australia 

JEL Classification

E62 F32 H62 

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Griffith Business SchoolGriffith UniversityGold CoastAustralia
  2. 2.Financial Econometrics Group, School of Accounting, Economics and FinanceDeakin UniversityBurwoodAustralia

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