Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy
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- Aastveit, K.A. & Trovik, T. Empir Econ (2012) 42: 95. doi:10.1007/s00181-010-0429-9
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This article finds that asset prices on Oslo Stock Exchange is the single most important block of data to improve estimates of current quarter GDP in Norway. We use an approximate dynamic factor model that is able to handle new information as it is released, thus the marginal impact on mean square nowcasting error can be studied for a large number of variables. We use a panel of 148 non-synchronous variables. The high informational content in asset prices is explained by reference to the small size of companies on Oslo Stock Exchange and the small and open nature of the Norwegian economy.