Original Paper

Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 26, Issue 2, pp 811-834

First online:

Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Population aging and endogenous economic growth

  • Klaus PrettnerAffiliated withCenter for Population and Development Studies, Harvard UniversityInstitute for International Economics, University of Göttingen Email author 


We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.


Demographic change Technological progress Long-run economic growth