Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 168, Issue 1, pp 69–83

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory


DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8

Cite this article as:
Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A. et al. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2011) 168: 69. doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8


Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times.


Seismic hazardneo-deterministic methodprobabilistic methodground motionItaly

Copyright information

© Springer Basel AG 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • E. Zuccolo
    • 1
  • F. Vaccari
    • 1
    • 2
  • A. Peresan
    • 1
    • 2
  • G. F. Panza
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of GeosciencesUniversity of TriesteTriesteItaly
  2. 2.The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTPMiramare, TriesteItaly