Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 168, Issue 1, pp 69–83

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory

Authors

    • Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Trieste
  • F. Vaccari
    • Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Trieste
    • The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP
  • A. Peresan
    • Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Trieste
    • The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP
  • G. F. Panza
    • Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Trieste
    • The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8

Cite this article as:
Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A. et al. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2011) 168: 69. doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8

Abstract

Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times.

Keywords

Seismic hazardneo-deterministic methodprobabilistic methodground motionItaly

Copyright information

© Springer Basel AG 2010