Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 168, Issue 3, pp 731-738

First online:

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, Area

  • Furen XieAffiliated withInstitute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration
  • , Zhenming WangAffiliated withKentucky Geological Survey Email author 
  • , Jingwei LiuAffiliated withInstitute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake AdministrationInstitute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration

Rent the article at a discount

Rent now

* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.

Get Access


Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity–frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.


Seismic hazard seismic risk seismic hazard analysis hazard curve