, Volume 170, Issue 1, pp 49-53

Predictors of first hip fracture and mortality post fracture in older women

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Abstract

Background

Hip fracture causes significant morbidity and mortality in older women.

Aim

To document factors contributing to the risk of hip fracture in older women and to assess the effect of hip fracture on subsequent mortality.

Methods

Case-control study of 89 women with hip fracture and 89 controls, with two-year follow-up. Singh index and bone mineral density were calculated.

Results

Osteoporotic indices did not differ significantly between cases and controls. Significant predictors of risk were sleeping tablets, perception of health as fair/poor and a lower mental status score. Patients were 3.57 times more likely to die in the first year after fracture, with no difference between the groups in year two. After adjustment, hip fracture did not remain significantly associated with mortality. Inability to walk 100 yards alone prior to fracture and lower social class were significantly associated with mortality at 12 months. Age alone was significantly associated at 12–24 months.

Conclusions

Factors related to falls and fracture may be more discriminatory predictors of hip fracture risk than osteoporosis in older females. Medications for sleep should be prescribed with caution. Hip fracture may have an independent effect on one year mortality, this effect is not seen in the second year.