Journal of Economics and Finance

, 18:357

A note on odds in the cattle futures market


  • Seth C. Anderson
    • University of North Florida
  • John D. Jackson
    • Auburn University
  • Jeffrey W. Steagall
    • University of North Florida

DOI: 10.1007/BF02920493

Cite this article as:
Anderson, S.C., Jackson, J.D. & Steagall, J.W. J Econ Finan (1994) 18: 357. doi:10.1007/BF02920493


This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible, this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10−16.

Copyright information

© Springer 1994