Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors: Application to monthly precipitation in Sweden
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.
- Barnett, T. P., G. Hegerl, T. Knutson, and S. Tett, 2000: Uncertainty levels in predicted patterns of anthropogenic climate change.J. Geophys. Res.,D105, 15525–15542. CrossRef
- Blenckner, T., and D. Chen, 2003: Comparison of the impact of regional and north-Atlantic atmospheric circulation on an aquatic ecosystem.Climate Research,23, 131–136. CrossRef
- Busuioc, A., D. Chen, and C. Hellström, 2001a: Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: Application for Swedish precipitation.Int. J. Climatol.,21, 557–578. CrossRef
- Busuioc, A., D. Chen, and C. Hellström, 2001b: Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large-scale atmospheric circulation.Tellus,53A, 348–367.
- Charles, S. P., B. C. Bates, P. H. Whetton, and J. P. Hughes, 1999: Validation of downscaling models for changed climate conditions: Case study of southwestern Australia.Clim. Res.,12, 1–14. CrossRef
- Chen, D., 2000: A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to winter temperature case study.Int. J. Climatol.,20, 1067–1076. CrossRef
- Chen, D., and X. Li, 2003: Scale dependent relationship between maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea and atmospheric circulation.Global and Planetary Change (in press).
- Covey, C., and coauthors, 2000: The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models.Climate Dyn.,16, 775–787. CrossRef
- Frich, F., and coauthors, 1996: North Atlantic Climatological Dataset (NACD Version 1)-Final Report.DMI Report, Copenhagen, Denmark, 47pp.
- Fuentes, U., and D. Heimann, 1996: Verification of statistical-dynamical downscaling in the Alpine region.Climate. Res.,7, 151–168. CrossRef
- Fuentes, U., and D. Heimann, 2000: An improved statistical-dynamical downscaling scheme and its application to the Alpine precipitation climatology.Theor. Appl. Climatol.,65, 119–135. CrossRef
- Giorgi, F., 1990: Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model.J. Climate.,3, 941–963. CrossRef
- Hellström, C., D. Chen, C. Achberger, and J. Räisäen, 2001: A comparison of climate change scenarios for Sweden based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation.Climate Research,19, 45–55. CrossRef
- Johns, T. C., R. E. Carnell, J. F. Crossley, J. M. Gregory, J. F. B. Mitchell, C. A. Senior, S. F. B. Tett, and R. A. Wood, 1997: The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation.Climate Dyn.,13, 103–134. CrossRef
- Kalnay, E., and coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,77, 437–471. CrossRef
- Karl, T. R., W. C. Wang, M. E. Schlesinger, R. W. Knight, D. Portman, 1990: A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to observed local climate. Part I: Seasonal statistics.J. Climate,3, 1053–1079. CrossRef
- Mearns, L. O., I. Bogardi, F. Giorgi, I. Matyasovszky, and M. Palecki, 1999: Comparison of climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statistical downscaling.J. Geophys. Res.,104, 6603–6621. CrossRef
- Mitchell, J. F. B., and T. C. Johns, 1997: On modification of global warming by sulphate aerosols.J. Climate,10, 245–267. CrossRef
- Murphy, J., 2000: Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical techniques.Int. J. Climatol.,20, 489–501. CrossRef
- Oberhuber, J. M., 1993: Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: Model description.J. Phys. Oceanogr.,22, 808–829. CrossRef
- Omstedt, A., and D. Chen, 2001: Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea.J. Geophys. Res.,106, 4493–4500. CrossRef
- Palutikof, J. P., J. A. Winkler, C. M. Goodess, and J. A. Andresen, 1997: The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part I: Comparison of model data with observations.J. Climate.,10, 2497–2513. CrossRef
- Räisänen, J., 2000: CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: Comparison of 12 CMIP2 experiments. Reports Meteorology and Climatology, No. 87, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, 59pp.
- Räisänen, J., M. Rummukainen, and A. Ullerstig, 2001: Downscaling of greenhouse gas induced climate change in two GCMs with the Rossby Centre regional climate model for northern Europe.Tellus,53A, 168–192.
- Roeckner, E., and coauthors, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.218, Hamburg, Germany, 90pp.
- Roeckner, E., L. Bengtsson, J. Feichter, J. Lelieveld, and H. Rodhe, 1999: Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle.J. Climate,12, 3004–3032. CrossRef
- Rummukainen, M., J. Räisänen, B. Bringfelt, A. Ullerstig, A. Omstedt, U. Willén, and U. Hansson, 2001: A regional climate model for northern Europe-Model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations.Climate Dyn.,17, 339–359. CrossRef
- Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.J. Geophys. Res.,106, 7183–7192. CrossRef
- Von Storch, H., H. Langeberg, and F. A. Feser, 2000: Spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes.Mon. Wea. Rev.,128, 3664–3673. CrossRef
- Winkler, J. A., J. P. Palutikof, J. A. Andresen, and C. M. Goodess, 1997: The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part II: Sensitivity analysis of an empirical transfer function methodology.J. Climate,10, 2514–2532. CrossRef
- Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors: Application to monthly precipitation in Sweden
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume 20, Issue 6 , pp 951-958
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Science Press
- Additional Links
- multiple regression
- atmospheric circulation indices
- monthly precipitation