, Volume 5, Issue 1, pp 1-60

Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

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Summary

In Bayesian inference and decision analysis, inferences and predictions are inherently probabilistic in nature. Scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score based on probability forecasts and what actually occurs, can be used to evaluate probabilities and to provide appropriate incentives for “good” probabilities. This paper review scoring rules and some related measures for evaluating probabilities, including decompositions of scoring rules and attributes of “goodness” of probabilites, comparability of scores, and the design of scoring rules for specific inferential and decision-making problems

Read before the Spanish Statistical Society at a meeting organized by the Universitat de València on Tuesday, April 23, 1996