Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 9, Issue 3, pp 259-274

Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors

  • Ralph AligAffiliated withUSDA Forest Service
  • , Darius AdamsAffiliated withOregon State University
  • , Bruce McCarlAffiliated withTexas A&M University
  • , J. M. CallawayAffiliated withUNEP Centre
  • , Steven WinnettAffiliated withU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.

Key words

afforestation climate change intersectoral land-use change