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Financial variables as leading indicators in Greece

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Abstract

This paper presents business cycle stylized facts for the Greek economy and extends the relevant Greek literature in the following directions. First, the index of industrial production (IOP) is used to represent real economic activity and business cycle conditions. Second, the behavior of certain financial variables throughout the various phases of the business cycle is analyzed in order to assess their leading indicator properties. Third, possible non-linearities in these variables are investigated and tested for their relation to the business cycle states. The results imply that the most reliable leading indicators are real Treasury bill rates. Volatilities of real short-term interest rates may also contain useful predictive information for IOP volatility. Finally, mean non-linearities seem to be associated with business cycle asymmetries in the mean.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Ioannina, Greece

    Nikolaos Mylonidis

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  1. Nikolaos Mylonidis
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The author wishes to express his gratitude to conference participants at the 55th International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Vienna, Austria, March 12–16, 2003, and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. The author is responsible for any shortcomings in the paper.

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Mylonidis, N. Financial variables as leading indicators in Greece. International Advances in Economic Research 9, 268–278 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02296175

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