Journal of Quantitative Criminology

, Volume 10, Issue 4, pp 317–342

Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles, seasons, and autoregression

  • Abraham N. Tennenbaum
  • Edward L. Fink

DOI: 10.1007/BF02221279

Cite this article as:
Tennenbaum, A.N. & Fink, E.L. J Quant Criminol (1994) 10: 317. doi:10.1007/BF02221279


It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.

Key words


Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  • Abraham N. Tennenbaum
    • 1
  • Edward L. Fink
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Criminology, Faculty of Social ScienceBar Ilan UniversityRamat GanIsrael
  2. 2.Department of Speech Communication, 2124 Skinner BuildingUniversity of Maryland at College ParkCollege Park