European Journal of Epidemiology

, Volume 10, Issue 4, pp 471–474

A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza


  • Antoine Flahault
    • B3E, Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine
  • Séverine Deguen
    • B3E, Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine
  • Alain-Jacques Valleron
    • B3E, Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine
Second Session: Epidemiological And Clinical Problems During Pandemics

DOI: 10.1007/BF01719679

Cite this article as:
Flahault, A., Deguen, S. & Valleron, A. Eur J Epidemiol (1994) 10: 471. doi:10.1007/BF01719679


Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in France, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulated an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berlin, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), only taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transportation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for action is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.

Key words

Epidemic forecastingInfluenza virusPassenger air traffic

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994