Climatic Change

, Volume 25, Issue 2, pp 179–184

Breaking global temperature records after Mt. Pinatubo


  • Gilbert W. BassettJr.
    • Department of Economics (m/c144)University of Illinois at Chicago
  • Zhiyong Lin
    • Department of Economics (m/c144)University of Illinois at Chicago

DOI: 10.1007/BF01661205

Cite this article as:
Bassett, G.W. & Lin, Z. Climatic Change (1993) 25: 179. doi:10.1007/BF01661205


The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling ‘resets’ temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this ‘reset’ can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.

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© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1993