, Volume 23, Issue 3, pp 483-506

Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates

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Long-run properties of EU-wide money aggregates are analysed. For each of the three aggregates considered-Currency, M1 and M3H-it is possible to obtain cointegrating relationships with GDP and interest rates (long or short term market interest rates). Results are not improved when traditional aggregates, obtained by aggregating existing national aggregates, are extended by the inclusion of various measures of Cross-Border Holdings. Specific attention is also paid to aggregation issues and the relative performance of area-wide and national equations. The results show that aggregation bias is not a major problem and that the relatively good area-wide performance is largely a consequence of a statistical averaging effect.

Both authors are in the Stage Three Division of the Monetary, Economics and Statistics Department of the European Monetary Institute. The authors would like to thank colleagues at the EMI and participants at an EMI conference on EU money demand, held in 1995, for helpful comments and suggestions. Comments received from participants in the 1997 Econometric Society European Meeting and in the Workshop on Money Demand at Berlin Humboldt Universität in 1997 are also gratefully acknowledged. The final version benefited from comments by the editors and two anonymous referees. Opinions expressed in the paper are only those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the EMI.