Severe thunderstorms in New South Wales: Climatology and means of assessing the impact of climate change
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
A climatology of severe thunderstorms in the Australian State of New South Wales is described, using the data base of more than 1000 severe thunderstorm events held in the New South Wales Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology. Previously only a tornado climatology was described. Severe thunderstorms are the second most costly weather phenomenon in Australia (after tropical cyclones), on the basis of insurance payouts for major events since June 1967. Two thirds of this cost occurs in New South Wales.
Severe thunderstorms show marked diurnal and seasonal distributions with maxima in the warmer months and during the late evening. Distributions are similar to those in the United States. The peak months for large and giant hail, tornadoes, strong winds and flash floods differ, being respectively November, December, January and February. While these temporal distributions are reasonably well defined, knowledge of the historical and spatial distributions is limited. A means of deriving a spatial distribution is given, which is based on the frequency near Sydney and the relative frequency at a time when there was a more uniform population distribution over the State.
The climatology of severe thunderstorms is not an adequate basis for assessing the impacts of a future climate change. However, there are possible means of doing this utilising numerical climate models, and these are suggested.
- Allen, R. H., Burgess, D. W., and Donaldson, R. J.: 1981, ‘Attenuation Problems with a 5 cm Radar’,Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 62, 807–810.
- Allen, S. C.: 1980, ‘A Preliminary Australian Tornado Climatology’,Tech. Rep. 39, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 14 pp.
- Anthony, R.: 1990, ‘Trends in Severe Local Storm Watch Forecast Performance at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center’,Preprints Sixteenth Conf. Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 281–286.
- Battan, L. J.: 1973, ‘Radar Observations of the Atmosphere’,University of Chicago Press.
- Bureau of Meteorology: 1989, ‘Plan for Upgrading Severe Thunderstorm Warning Services’, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 78 pp.
- Clarke, R. H.: 1962, ‘Severe Local Wind Storms in Australia’,Tech. Paper 13, CSIRO Division of Meteorological Physics, Mordialloc, Australia, 56 pp.
- Colquhoun, J. R.: 1987, ‘A Decision Tree Method of Forecasting Thunderstorms, Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes’,Wea. Forecast. 1, 337–345.
- Colquhoun, J. R. and Shepherd, D. J.: 1989, ‘An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity’,Wea. Forecast. 4, 35–50.
- Colquhoun, J. R., Shepherd, D. J., Coulman, C. E., and Smith, R. K.: 1985, ‘The Southerly Burster of Southeastern Australia: An Orographically Forced Cold Front’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 2090–2107.
- Crysler, K. A., Maddox, R. A., Hoxit, L. R., and Muller, B. M.: 1982, Diurnal Distribution of Very Heavy Precipitation over the Central and Eastern United States’,Natl. Wea. Dig. 7, 33–37.
- Dessens, J. P.: 1986, ‘Hail in Southwestern France. 1: Hailfall Characteristics and Hailstorm Environment’,J. Appl. Meteorol. 25, 35–47.
- Droegemeier, K. K.: 1990, ‘Toward a Science of Storm-Scale Prediction’,Preprints Sixteenth Conf. on Severe Local Strorms, Kananaskis Park, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 256-262.
- Evesson, D. T.: 1969, ‘Tornado Occurrences in New South Wales’,Aust. Met. Mag. 17, 143–165.
- Fritsch, J. M. and Chappell, C. F.: 1980, ‘Numerical Prediction of Convectively Driven Mesoscale Pressure Systems. Part 1: Convective Parameterisation’,J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 1722–1733.
- Foote, G. B. and Fankhauser, J. C.: 1973, ‘Airflow and Moisture Budget beneath a Northeast Colorado Hailstorm’,J. Appl. Meteor. 12, 1330–1353.
- Fujita, T. T.: 1987, ‘U.S. Tornadoes Part 1’,SMRP Res. Paper 218, The University of Chicago, 5734 Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637, U.S.A.
- Gates, W. L., Rowntree, P. R. and Zeng, Q.-C.: 1990, ‘Validation of Climate Models’, inClimate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, pp. 93-130.
- Grace, W., Watson, A., Tepper, G., and Manson, R.: 1989, ‘A Climatology of Severe Thunderstorms in South Australia’,Tech. Rep. 62, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 18 pp.
- Giordano, L. A. and Fritch, J. M.: 1991, ‘Strong Tornadoes and Flash-Flood-Producing Rainstorms during the Warm Season in the Mid-Atlantic Region’,Weath. Forecast. 6, 437–455.
- Giorgi, P.: 1990, ‘Simulation of Regional Climate Using a Limited Area Model Nested in a General Circulation Model’,J. Clim. 3, 941–963.
- Joy, C. S.: 1993, ‘The Cost of Natural Disasters in Australia’, Paper presented at the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Workshop, Macquarie University, NSW, Australia, May 13–15, 1991.
- Karl, T. R., Wang, W.-C., Schlesinger, M. E., Knight, R. W., and Portman, D.: 1990, ‘A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part 1: Seasonal Statistics’,J. Clim. 3, 1053–1079.
- Kelly, D. L, Schaefer, J. T., McNulty, R. P., Doswell 111, C. A., and Abbey, Jr., R. F.: 1978, ‘An Augmented Tornado Climatology’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 106, 1172–1183.
- Kelly, D. L., Schaefer, J. T., and Doswell 111, C. A.: 1985, ‘Climatology of Severe Thunderstorm Events in the United States’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 1997–2014.
- Lilly, D. K.: 1990, ‘Numerical Prediction of Thunderstorms - Has Its Time Come?’,Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 116, 779–798.
- Maddox, R. A., Rodgers, D. M., Deitrich, W., and Bartels, D. L.: 1981, ‘Meteorological Settings Associated with Significant Convective Storms in Colorado’, NOAA Tech. Mem. ERL OWRM-4.
- Mitchell, E. and Griffiths, D. J.: 1993, ‘The Sydney Hailstorm of 18 March 1990’, Accepted for Publication. Special Report Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
- Newark, M. J.: 1983, ‘Tornadoes in Canada for the Period 1950–1979’, Publication Number CLI-2-83, Atmospheric Environment Service, Ontario, Canada.
- Pittock, A. B.: 1973, ‘Global Meridional Interactions in Stratosphere and Troposphere’,Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 99, 424–437.
- Riley, P. A. and Colquhoun, J. R.: 1990, ‘Thermodynamic and Wind Related Variables in the Environment of United States Tornadoes and Their Relationship to Tornado Intensity’,Preprints Sixteenth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 599-602.
- Speheger, D. A., Shellberg, D. J., Gibbons, J. R., DeToro, J. A., Snow, J. T., and Grazulis, T. P.: 1990, ‘A Climatology of Severe Thunderstorm Events in Indiana’,Preprints 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 18-23.
- Weisman, M. L. and Klemp, J. B.: 1982, ‘The Dependence of Numerically Simulated Convective Storms on Vertical Wind Shear and Buoyancy’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 504–520.
- Wilson, J. W.: 1978, ‘Comparison of C and S Band Reflectivities in Northeast Colorado Hailstorms’,Preprints, 17th Radar Meteor. Conf., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 271-275.
- Severe thunderstorms in New South Wales: Climatology and means of assessing the impact of climate change
Volume 25, Issue 3-4 , pp 369-388
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors