Do prices reflect market fundamentals in real estate markets?

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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine prices on land and REIT shares for possible evidence of deviations from market fundamentals, the underlying economic forces. Models of market fundamentals are developed from the intertemporal capital asset pricing model so that risk aversion and a stochastic investment opportunity set can be incorporated in the analysis. The approach in this article is to compare ex post values of actual discounted cash flows with prices and to test whether the price series are unbiased predictors of the future discounted cash flows. Several tests of the relationship are presented, and the results suggest that prices of real estate investment trusts and prices of farm land do not always reflect fundamental value.