, Volume 4, Issue 1, pp 60-67

The 25 year estimated probability of death from some specific causes as a function of twelve risk factors in middle aged men

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Abstract

Twelve risk factors previously identified as predictors of all causes of death in a 25-year follow-up of a sample of 1530 men aged 40–59 at entry, have been tested as predictors of specific causes of death. They were age (AGE), mean blood pressure (MBP), cigarette smoking (CIG), forced expiratory volume (FEV), arm circumference (ARM), father-life status (FHAS), mother-life status (MHOS), shoulder-pelvis ratio (SPR), vital capacity (VC), arcus senilis (ARCS), serum cholesterol (CHOL) and xantelasma (XANT). Using the proportional hazards model and considering coronary heart diseases, strokes, cancers, violent deaths, and other causes as end-points, AGE and MBP were significant predictors for all conditions, including violent deaths. CIG predicted coronary heart disease, stroke and cancer; FEV, VC, and ARM were protective for all end-points but significant only for a few of them. FHAS and MHOS were positively associated with all end-points but significant only for a few of them. ARCS and XANT were predictive for only a few conditions and, surprisingly, XANT was a significant risk factor for cancer. Finally CHOL was specifically predictive only for coronary heart disease.