Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases
- Peter H. Gleick
- … show all 1 hide
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
Concern over changes in global climate caused by growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has increased in recent years as our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and global climate systems has improved. Yet despite a growing understanding of climatic processes, many of the effects of human-induced climatic changes are still poorly understood. Major alterations in regional hydrologic cycles and subsequent changes in regional water availability may be the most important effects of such climatic changes. Unfortunately, these are among the least well-understood impact. Water-balance modeling techniques - modified for assessing climatic impacts - were developed and tested for a major watershed in northern California using climate-change scenarios from both state-of-the-art general circulation models and from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research suggest strongly that plausible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important agricultural areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 8 to 44%. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff-specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
- Al-Khashab, W. H.: 1958, ‘The Water Budget of the Tigris and Euphrates Basin’, University of Chicago, Department of Geography, Research Paper 54, Chicago, Illinois.
- Dickinson, R. E.: 1984, ‘Modeling Evapotranspiration for Three-Dimensional Global Climate Models’, in J. E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, (eds.), Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, American Geophysical Union Monograph 29. Maurice Ewing Vol. 5 Washington, D.C. pp. 58–72.
- Flaschka, I. M.: 1984, ‘Climatic Change and Water Supply in the Great Basin’, Master's Thesis, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona.
- Gleick, P. H.: 1986a, ‘Regional Water Availability and Global Climatic Change: The Hydrologie Consequences of Increases in Atmospheric CO2 and Other Trace Gases’, Energy and Resources Group, Ph.D. Thesis, ERG-DS-86–1. University of California, Berkeley, 688 pp.
- Gleick, P. H.: 1986b, ‘Methods for Evaluating the Regional Hydrologic Impacts of Global Climatic Changes’, Journal of Hydrology 88, pp. 97–116.
- Gleick, P. H.: 1987, ‘The Development and Testing of a Water-Balance Model for Climate Impact Assessment: Modeling the Sacramento Basin’, Water Resources Research. (in press).
- Haan, C. T.: 1972, ‘A Water Yield Model for Small Watersheds’, Water Resources Research 8, No. 1.
- Hansen, J. E., Rind, D., Russell, G., Stone, P., Fung, I., Ruedy, R., and Lerner, J.: 1984, ‘Climatic Sensitivity: Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms’, in J. E. Hansen and T. Takahashi (eds.), Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, American Geophysical Union Monograph 29. Maurice Ewing Vol. 5, Washington, D.C. pp. 130–163.
- Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’, Monthly Weather Review 111, 609–662.
- Manabe, S.: 1969a, ‘Climate and the Ocean Circulation. I. The Atmospheric Circulation and the Hydrology of the Earth's Surface’, Monthly Weather Review 97, 739–774.
- Manabe, S.: 1969b, ‘Climate and the Ocean Circulation. II. The Atmospheric Circulation and the Effect of Heat Transfer by Ocean Currents’, Monthly Weather Review 97, 775–805.
- Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1980, ‘Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere’, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 5529–5554.
- Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1980, ‘On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2-Content of the Atmosphere’, J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 99–118.
- Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1986, ‘Reduction in Summer Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Science 232, 626–628.
- Manabe, S., Wetherald, R. T., and Stouffer, R. J.: 1981, ‘Summer Dryness Due to an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration’, Climatic Change 3, 347–386.
- Mather, J. R.: 1978, The Climatic Water Budget in Environmental Analysis, D.C. Heath Co., Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts.
- Miller, D. H.: 1977, Water at the Surface of the Earth: An Introduction to Ecosystem Hydrodynamics, Academic Press, New York.
- Mitchell, J. M. Jr.: 1983, ‘An Empirical Modeling Assessment of Volcanic and Carbon Dioxide Effects on Global Scale Temperature’, American Meteorological Society, Second Conference on Climate Variations, New Orleans, Louisiana.
- Němec, J. and Schaake, J.: 1982, ‘Sensitivity of Water Resource Systems to Climate Variation’, Hydrological Sciences 27, 327–343.
- Ramanathan, V.: 1981, ‘The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in the CO2 Climate Problem’, J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 918–930.
- Revelle, R. R. and Waggoner, P. E.: 1983, ‘Effects of a Carbon Dioxide-Induced Climatic Change on Water Supplies in the Western United States’, in Changing Climate, National Academy of Sciences. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
- Schlesinger, M. E. and Gates, W. L.: 1980, ‘The January and July Performance of the OSU Two-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model’, J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 1914–1943.
- Schneider, S. H. and Thompson, S. L.: 1981, ‘Atmospheric CO2 and Climate: Importance of the Transient Response’, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135–3147.
- Schwarz, H. E.: 1977, ‘Climatic Change and Water Supply: How Sensitive is the Northeast?’, in Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply, National Academy of Sciences. Washington, D.C.
- Snyder, C. T. and Langbein, W. B.: 1962, ‘The Pleistocene Lake in Spring Valley, Nevada’, J. Geophys. Res. 67, 2385–2394. June.
- Sokolov, A. A. and Chapman, T. G.: 1974, Methods for Water Balance Computations, International Guide for Research and Practice. Unesco Press, Paris.
- Stockton, C. W. and Boggess, W. R.: 1979, ‘Geohydrological Implications of Climate Change on Water Resource Development’, U.S. Army Coastal Engineering Research Center, Fort Belvoir, Virginia.
- Thornthwaite, C. W.: 1948, ‘An Approach Toward a Rational Classification of Climate’, Geographical Review 38, 55–94.
- Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R.: 1955, ‘The Water Balance’, Drexel Institute of Technology, Publications in Climatology, Laboratory of Climatology. Vol. VIII, No. 1., 104 pp.
- Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R.: 1957, ‘Instructions and Tables for Computing the Potential Evapotranspiration and the Water Balance’, Drexel Institute of Technology, Publications in Climatology, Laboratory of Climatology Vol. X, No. 3. 311 pp.
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: 1980, Guide Manual for Preparation of Water Balances, (R. J. Hayes, K. A. Popko, and W. K. Johnson). The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California.
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: 1984, ‘Potential Climatic Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 with Emphasis on Water Availability and Hydrology in the United States’, Strategic Studies Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation.
- Washington, W. M. and Meehl, G. A.: 1983, ‘General Circulation Model Experiments on the Climatic Effects Due to a Doubling and Quadrupling of Carbon Dioxide Concentration’, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 6600–6610.
- Washington, W. M. and Meehl, G. A.: 1984, ‘Seasonal Cycle Experiment on the Climate Sensitivity Due to a Doubling of CO2 With an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Coupled to a Simple Mixed-Layer Ocean Model’, J. Geophys Res. 89, 9475–9503.
- Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: 1981, ‘Influence of Seasonal Variation Upon the Sensitivity of a Model Climate’, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 1194–1204.
- Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases
Volume 10, Issue 2 , pp 137-160
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Peter H. Gleick (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 94720, Berkeley, U.S.A.