Abstract
Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which removes CO2 from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.
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Notes
By 2100, climate change is likely to have altered most ecosystems in their structure, function and biodiversity, and most of these alterations could compromise the services those ecosystems provide to society (IPCC 2007a). Terrestrial ecosystems currently are highly important in carbon sequestration, but the terrestrial biosphere can also act as a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. There is an increasingly high risk of plant and animal species extinctions across terrestrial, fresh water, and marine biota as global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2–3 °C above pre-industrial levels. These impacts on biodiversity are in many cases practically irreversible. The structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems are likely to change; some of these impacts may be positive and others negative. The structure and functioning of marine ecosystems also are likely to be impacted regionally by climate change with models projecting elevated productivity at high latitudes and reduced productivity at low latitudes (Doney 1996). The most vulnerable ecosystems and species are thought to be coral reefs, the sea ice biome, other high-latitude ecosystems, mountain ecosystems, and Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.
There is a fundamental problem in estimating the ecosystem (and other) effects of geoengineering, namely the choice of alternative (reference) scenario against which they are assessed. Throughout this document we compare with a reasonably likely scenario as our “control,” i.e., one in the mid-range of SRES scenarios (IPCC 2007a), midway between the extremes of Business-as-Usual and very rapid reduction of emissions. This assumes some “moderate” rate of fossil carbon and other greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere from energy use and land use changes. The expected responses of ecosystems to the atmospheric and climatic changes resulting from increasing GHG concentrations were reviewed and summarized (IPCC 2007b). We assume that this would correspond to a leveling off of CO2 concentrations and temperatures at approximately doubled CO2 (560 ppm).
See http://www.oxfordgeoengineering.org/about.php. Accessed 7 June 2011.
A description of the London Convention (or London Protocol) is available at http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/SpecialProgramsAndInitiatives/Pages/London-Convention-and-Protocol.aspx.
The proposed five principles are available at http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/news/Pages/regulation-geoengineering.aspx.
Articles on this topic are available in the special issue of Stanford Journal of Law, Science and Policy at http://www.stanford.edu/group/sjlsp/cgi-bin/articles/index.php?CatID=1013.
See Footnote 7.
See Footnote 2.
We consider afforestation here as a CDR method, even though in some circumstances it is also considered a mitigation method, e.g., avoided deforestation.
CDR methods do not have this so-called “termination problem” (unless storage proves unstable), since any reduction of GHG concentrations is necessarily gradual and essentially permanent, and this can be regarded as a major advantage of this class of methods.
See note 3.
The efforts already being made through the Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative (of the Royal Society, the Third World Academy of Science, and the Environmental Defense Fund) and through the London Convention for ocean fertilization will contribute to the development of necessary systems and norms.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation grant AGS1111205 and the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council, as well as seed funding and outreach support from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program. We also gratefully acknowledge workshop participation from Richard Norris, Richard Somerville, Susan Hassol, Kathy Barbeau, Luis Gylvan, Phil Ineson, Ninad Bondre, Ben Kravitz, Spencer Hill, Lili Xia, Robin Stevens, and Anita Johnson.
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Russell, L.M., Rasch, P.J., Mace, G.M. et al. Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan. AMBIO 41, 350–369 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5