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Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem

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Abstract

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

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Acknowledgments

This is a contribution to the Arctic Tipping Points project (www.eu-atp.org) funded by FP7 of the European Union (contract #226248).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain

    Carlos M. Duarte, Susana Agustí, Jesús M. Arrieta, Alexandra Coello, Núria Marbà, Iris E. Hendriks, Johnna Holding & Iñigo García-Zarandona

  2. The UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Carlos M. Duarte

  3. The UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Susana Agustí

  4. Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Bioscience, Fishery and Economy, University of Tromsø, 9037, Tromsø, Norway

    Paul Wassmann

  5. Institut de Ciéncies del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain

    Miquel Alcaraz & Dolors Vaqué

  6. Department of Biology, Lund University Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62, Lund, Sweden

    Emma Kritzberg

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Correspondence to Carlos M. Duarte.

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Duarte, C.M., Agustí, S., Wassmann, P. et al. Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem. AMBIO 41, 44–55 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0224-7

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