Abstract
Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Batty M, Xie YC, Sun ZL (1999) Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata. Comput Environ Urban Syst 23:205–233
Brown I (2006) Modelling future landscape change on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS. Environ Model Softw 21:1479–1490
Chen BC, Hao SY, Yang XX (2004) The dynamic mechanism of the rapid development of urbanization in China (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin 59(6):1068–1075
China Meteorological Administration (2006) National standard for grade of tropical cyclones (GB/T 19201-2006) (in Chinese)
Church JA, White NJ (2006) A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2005GL024826
Congalton RG (1991) A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data. Remote Sens Environ 37:35–46
Cooper M, Beevers M, Oppenheimer M (2008) The potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal region of New Jersey, USA. Clim Change 90:475–492
Fang Cl (2009) The urbanization and urban development in China after the reform and opening-up (in Chinese). Econ Geogr 29(1):19–25
Gong S, Yang S (2008) Effect of Land Subsidence on Urban Flood Prevention Engineering in Shanghai (in Chinese). Geogr Sci 28:543–547
Harvey N, Nicholls R (2008) Global sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability. Sustain Sci 3:5–7
Huang C, Dong XJ, Wu HQ (1996) Monitoring variations in mean sea level using TOPEX satellite (in Chinese). Ann Shanghai Obs Acad Sin 17:46–51
Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UEA, Norwich
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Karim MF, Mimura N (2008) Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh. Glob Environ Change 18:490–500
Li Y, Qin Z, Duan Y (1998) An estimation and assessment of future sea level rise in Shanghai region (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin 53:393–403
Liu D, Ye Y (2005) Relative sea surface rise and land subsidence in Changjiang delta area (in Chinese). J Geol Hazards Environ Preserv 16:400–404
Monjoie A, Paepe R, Su HY (1992) Land subsidence in Shanghai (P.R. of China). Bull Eng Geol Environ 46:5–7
Moore ID (1996) Hydrological modelling and GIS. In: Goodchild MF, Steyaert LT, Parks BO, Johnston C, Maidment D, Crane M, Glendinning S (eds) GIS and environmental modeling: progress and research issues. GIS World Books, Fort Collins, pp 143–148
Murty TS (1984) Storm surges-meteorological ocean tides. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 212:876–897
Poulter B, Halpin PN (2008) Raster modelling of coastal flooding from sea-level rise. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 22:167–182
Qian ZH (1996) Dftermination of the crustal vertical motion at Sheshan area, shanghai by VLBI (in Chinese). Ann Shanghai Obs Acad Sin 17:52–56
Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Planning and Land Resources (2007) Shanghai geological environmental bulletin 2007 (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau (2008) Shanghai statistical yearbook 2007 (in Chinese)
Shen ZW (1994) Development of Pudong: new pattern of urbanization in China (in Chinese). Shanghai Econ Res 12:22–24
Shi Y, Zhu J, Xie Z (2000) Prediction and control strategies of the impact of sea-level rise on Yangtze River Delta and adjacent areas (in Chinese). Sci in China Ser D Earth Sci 30:225–232
Snoussi M, Ouchani T, Niazi S (2008) Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: the case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 77:206–213
State key laboratory of estuarine and coastal research, East China sea forecasting center of State Oceanic Administration, Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration (2005) Research report of Characteristic analysis and forecasting model of storm surge and tide of Taihu Lake (in Chinese), pp 1–91
State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China (2008) China sea level bulletin 2007 (in Chinese)
Tralli D, Blom RG, Zlotnicki V, Donnellan A, Evans DL (2005) Satellite remote sensing of earthquake, volcano, flood, landslide and coastal inundation hazards. J Photogramm Remote Sens 59:185–198
Xie Y (1996) A generalized model for cellular urban dynamics. Geogr Anal 28:350–373
Xu SY, Su J, Wang Z et al (2004) Atlas of Shanghai urban physical geography. Chinese Map Publishing House, Shanghai
Xu JG, Liao BG, Shen Q, Zhang F, Mei AX (2007) Urban spatial restructuring in transitional economy—changing land use pattern in Shanghai. Chin Geogr Sci 17:19–27
Xue Y, Zhang Y, Ye SJ, Wu JC, Li QF (2005) Land subsidence in China. Environ Geol 48:713–720
Yuan J, Tan C, Chang X (2007) Study on coastal megalopolis of China (in Chinese). Urban Probl 147:11–17
Zeng MX, Zhang SY (2004) Restudy on population scale in Shanghai based on comparative research (in Chinese). Popul J 147:28–33
Zhang J, Wang X, Wang H (2001) The estimation of MSL rise along the China’s coasts in the future (in Chinese). Bull Surv Mapp 4:4–5
Zhou CH, Sun ZL, Xie YC (1999) Study on geo-cellular automata (in Chinese). Science Press, Beijing
Zhu Y (2002) Risk analysis and management of flood control for Shanghai (in Chinese). J Hydraul Eng 8:21–28
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation in China (Grant Nos: 41071324, 40730526), Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant Nos: 08240514000), the Oversea Visiting Foundation of East China Normal University, the Shanghai Youth Science and Technology Venus Program (Grants Nos: 09QA1401800), Key Subject Developing Project by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant Nos: J50402), Leading Academic Discipline Project of Shanghai Normal University (Grant Nos: DZL809), and Natural Science Research Project by Shanghai Normal University (Grant Nos: SK200727). We want to acknowledge suggestions from the anonymous reviewers, which helped to improve this manuscript. We extend these thanks to Xiaoyang Zhang and Yiqing Zheng for their assistance in reviewing the English version of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yin, J., Yin, Ze., Hu, Xm. et al. Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai, China. Environ Earth Sci 63, 407–414 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0787-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0787-9