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Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—an international appliance efficiency policy tool

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An Erratum to this article was published on 07 May 2013

Abstract

The Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) calculates potential energy and greenhouse gas emission impacts of efficiency policies for lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, appliances, and industrial equipment through 2030. The model includes 16 end use categories and covers 11 individual countries plus the European Union. BUENAS is a bottom–up stock accounting model that predicts energy consumption for each type of equipment in each country according to engineering-based estimates of annual unit energy consumption, scaled by projections of equipment stock. Energy demand in each scenario is determined by equipment stock, usage, intensity, and efficiency. When available, BUENAS uses sales forecasts taken from country studies to project equipment stock. Otherwise, BUENAS uses an econometric model of household appliance uptake developed by the authors. Once the business as usual scenario is established, a high-efficiency policy scenario is constructed that includes an improvement in the efficiency of equipment installed in 2015 or later. Policy case efficiency targets represent current “best practice” and include standards already established in a major economy or well-defined levels known to enjoy a significant market share in a major economy. BUENAS calculates energy savings according to the difference in energy demand in the two scenarios. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation is then calculated using a forecast of electricity carbon factor. We find that mitigation of 1075 mt annual CO2 emissions is possible by 2030 from adopting current best practices of appliance efficiency policies. This represents a 17 % reduction in emissions in the business as usual case in that year.

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Notes

  1. Throughout this article, “appliance” is a generic term that includes energy-consuming equipment installed in residential and commercial buildings, lighting, and some discrete industrial equipment such as electric motors and distribution transformers. It excludes vehicles and equipment used as a component in industrial processes.

  2. See Mundaca et al. (2010) for a survey of energy-economy models used to evaluate efficiency policy.

  3. Since that time, additional studies of appliance efficiency potential in the USA have been performed (Rohmund et al. 2011; Lowenberger et al. 2012).

  4. See for example USDOE (2011a). All analyses supporting US Department of Energy appliance rulemakings can be found at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/.

  5. For more information on LEAP, visit http://www.sei-us.org/software/leap.html

  6. In this scenario, “achievable” means that it would be feasible to implement a policy by that time. The definition does not take into account the lead times between policy announcement and implementation, which can be several years in some countries.

  7. While efficiency is generally assumed to be constant in the business as usual case, unit energy consumption can change over time according to usage trends.

  8. Examples of these are analyses of potentials for the USA (Rosenquist et al. 2006) and IEA countries (IEA 2003).

  9. There are other reasons as well. For example, evidence suggests that manufacturers in Mexico outperformed MEPS in that country in order to produce products competitive in the wider North American Market—see Sanchez et al. (2007).

  10. The most common of these are the Technical Support Documents used in the development of US federal appliance standards and Preparatory Studies used to support the European Commission’s Ecodesign standards.

  11. Due to the large footprint of space heating, however, savings in absolute terms from this end use can be very large.

  12. Due to learning, higher efficiency levels are likely to be achievable, but the baseline may also be more efficient.

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Acknowledgments

Development of the BUENAS model has taken place over several years and has benefitted from a great number of colleagues, including those at LBNL, in the international energy policy community, and among our sponsors. From LBNL, the authors would like to acknowledge Nicholas Bojda and Puneeth Kalavase, who contributed to recent updates and quality assurance. For their contributions to and review of the analysis, we thank Gregory Rosenquist, Won Young Park, Nakul Sathaye, Nihar Shah, Amol Phadke, Jayant Sathaye, and James McMahon from LBNL. In addition, we received invaluable insight from international colleagues, including Tanmay Tathagat, Jun Young Choi, Lloyd Harrington, Itha Sánchez, Margarito Sánchez, Anibal de Almeida, and Philippe Rivière. Special thanks go to Kevin Lane and Louis-Benoit Desroches for their careful review. We also acknowledge our sponsors and project managers, including Christine Egan, Yamina Saheb, Frank Klinckenberg and Allison Fan of CLASP, John Mollet of the International Copper Association, and Gabrielle Dreyfus of the US Department of Energy. Finally, we are particularly indebted to Stephen Wiel for planting the seed that grew into BUENAS.

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  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA, USA

    Michael A. McNeil, Virginie E. Letschert, Stephane de la Rue du Can & Jing Ke

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  1. Michael A. McNeil
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  2. Virginie E. Letschert
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Correspondence to Michael A. McNeil.

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McNeil, M.A., Letschert, V.E., de la Rue du Can, S. et al. Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—an international appliance efficiency policy tool. Energy Efficiency 6, 191–217 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-012-9182-6

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