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Estimating Populations of Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Southern United States

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Abstract

Population estimates of men who have sex with men (MSM) by state and race/ethnicity are lacking, hampering effective HIV epidemic monitoring and targeting of outreach and prevention efforts. We created three models to estimate the proportion and number of adult males who are MSM in 17 southern states. Model A used state-specific census data stratified by rural/suburban/urban area and national estimates of the percentage MSM in corresponding areas. Model B used a national estimate of the percentage MSM and state-specific household census data. Model C partitioned the statewide estimates by race/ethnicity. Statewide Models A and B estimates of the percentages MSM were strongly correlated (r = 0.74; r-squared = 0.55; p < 0.001) and had similar means (5.82% and 5.88%, respectively) and medians (5.5% and 5.2%, respectively). The estimated percentage MSM in the South was 6.0% (range 3.6–13.2%; median, 5.4%). The combined estimated number of MSM was 2.4 million, including 1,656,500 (69%) whites, 339,400 (14%) blacks, 368,800 (15%) Hispanics, 34,600 (1.4%) Asian/Pacific Islanders, 7,700 (0.3%) American Indians/Alaska Natives, and 11,000 (0.5%) others. The estimates showed considerable variability in state-specific racial/ethnic percentages MSM. MSM population estimates enable better assessment of community vulnerability, HIV/AIDS surveillance, and allocation of resources. Data availability and computational ease of our models suggest other states could similarly estimate their MSM populations.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully thank Hannah L.F. Cooper, ScD, Joseph Prejean, PhD, Samuel R. Friedman, PhD, William M. Sappenfield, MD, MPH, and Mary Beth Zeni, ScD, for their review and comments on the manuscript.

This research was conducted under the auspices of the Southern AIDS Coalition (SAC). The SAC MSM Project Team comprises all coauthors and the following: Dano W. Beck, MSW (Florida), Joseph Interrante, PhD (Tennessee), Sigga M. Jagne, BSc, MPA (Kentucky), Khalid A. Kheirallah, MSc (Virginia), Leandro A. Mena, MD, MPH (Mississippi), P. Julie Nakayima, MPH (Kentucky), Patrick C. Packer, BS (SAC Executive Director), M. Beth Scalco, LCSW, MPA (Louisiana), Thomas J. Shavor, MBA (Tennessee), Debbie A. Wendell, PhD, MPH (Louisiana), Tiffany West-Ojo, MPH, MSPH (District of Columbia).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Florida Department of Health, Bureau of HIV/AIDS, Bin A09, 4052 Bald Cypress Way, Tallahassee, FL, 32399-1715, USA

    Spencer Lieb, Daniel R. Thompson & Thomas M. Liberti

  2. District of Columbia Department of Health, Washington, DC, USA

    Shyam Misra

  3. The Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Gary J. Gates

  4. University of South Carolina School of Medicine, Columbia, SC, USA

    Wayne A. Duffus

  5. South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, Columbia, SC, USA

    Wayne A. Duffus

  6. Skills4, Inc., Ft. Lauderdale, FL, USA

    Stephen J. Fallon

  7. North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Raleigh, NC, USA

    Evelyn M. Foust

  8. Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA

    Robert M. Malow

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  1. Spencer Lieb
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Correspondence to Spencer Lieb.

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Lieb, S., Thompson, D.R., Misra, S. et al. Estimating Populations of Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Southern United States. J Urban Health 86, 887–901 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-009-9401-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-009-9401-4

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