Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

  • Published:
Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965–2004, with correlation coefficients of −0.42 and −0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical atmospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Pan Y H. The impact of the thermal conditions in the tropical eastern Pacific on the typhoon frequency. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1982, 40: 25–33.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Li C Y. El Niño and the typhoon activity. Chin Sci Bull (in Chinese), 1984, 14: 1087–1089

    Google Scholar 

  3. Chan J C L. Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. MonWea Rev, 1985, 113: 599–606, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113〈0599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Wu G X, Lau N C. A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical-storm formation and ENSO. Mon Wea Rev, 1992, 120: 958–977, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120〈0958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Lander Mark A. Comments on “A GCM Simulation of the relationship between Tropical strom formation and ENSO. Mon Wea Rev, 1993, 116: 2137–2143, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121〈2137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Chen T, Weng S P, Yamazaki N, et al. Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon Wea Rev, 1998, 126: 1080–1090, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126〈1080

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Chia H H. Ropelewski C F. The interannual variability in the Genesis Location of the tropical cyclones in the Northwest pacific. J. Climate, 2002, 15: 2934–2944, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015〈2934

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Wang B, Chan J C L. How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Climate, 2002, 15: 1643–1658, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015〈1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Gray W M. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency, Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quisa-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Wea Rev, 1984, 112: 1649–1668, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112〈1649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Chan J C L. tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric quisa-biennial oscillation. Mon Wea Rev, 1995, 123: 2567–2571, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123〈2567

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Chan J C L. Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Climate, 2000, 13: 2960–2972, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013〈2960

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Chan J C L, Shi J E, Lam C M. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over Western North Pacific and the South China Sea. J Climate, 1998, 13: 997–1003, doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013〈0997

    Google Scholar 

  13. Chen X F, Zhao Z G.. The Research and Appliance on the Summer Rainfall Prediction in China (in Chinese). Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999, 171–178

    Google Scholar 

  14. Li X Z. Theory of typhoon genesis. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1956, 27: 87–89

    Google Scholar 

  15. Tao S Y, Xu S Y, Guo Q Y. Characteristics of zonal and meridional circulation patterns in the tropics and subtropics during boreal summer. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1963, 32(4): 91–103

    Google Scholar 

  16. Wang Z S, He S X, Fang Z Y, et al. A prelimary study on the multi-typhoon occurrence of the ITCZ in the west Pacific. Sci Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1982, 1,2: 132–139

    Google Scholar 

  17. He S X, Zhang B Y, Fu X Q. The summer typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific and the large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 1986, 2: 251–256

    Google Scholar 

  18. Li Z Z. Statistical analysis of cross equatorial and weather in China. Meteorology (in Chinese), 1986, 4: 11–14

    Google Scholar 

  19. Chen L S. The summertime middle and high latitudes flow pattern in Asia and the western North Pacific typhoon tracks. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese), 1965, 35: 476–485

    Google Scholar 

  20. Ding Y H. The large-scale circulation conditions for the western North Pacific typhoon formation. Acta Oceanogr Sin (in Chinese), 1983, 5: 561–574

    Google Scholar 

  21. Fan K, Wang H J. Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China, Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31, L10201, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Fan K, Wang H J. Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring. Sci Chin: Ser D-Earth Sci, 2006, 49(5): 554–560, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Wang H J, Fan K. Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: Signal of the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation, Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32, L24705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Wang H J, Fan K. Relationship between the Antarctic oscillation and the western North Pacific typhoon frequency. Chin Sci Bull, 2007, 52(4): 561–565

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Wang H J. The circum-Pacific teleconnection pattern in meridional wind in the high troposphere. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22(3): 463–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Wang H J. Linkage between the Northeast Mongolia precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere zonal circulation. Adv Atmos Sci, 2006, 23(5): 659–664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Wang H J. Signals of Darwin atmospheric pressure in the tree-ring recorded Northeastern Mongolia precipitation. Chin J Atmos Sci, 2006, 30(5): 753–758

    Google Scholar 

  28. Wu B Y, Huang, R H, Gao D Y. The impacts of the variation of the se-ice extend in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea in the winter on the winter Monsoon over east Asia. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese), 1999, 23: 268–275

    Google Scholar 

  29. Zhao P, Zhang X D, Zhou X J. The sea ice extent anomaly in the North Pacific and its impact on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Climate, 2004, 17: 3424–3447, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017〈3434

    Google Scholar 

  30. Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, et al. Global analyses of sea surface tmperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, et al. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Climate, 2002, 15: 1609–1625, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015〈1609

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Fan Ke

  2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091, China

    Fan Ke

Authors
  1. Fan Ke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40620130113 and 40221503)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fan, K. North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?. SCI CHINA SER D 50, 1251–1257 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-007-0076-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-007-0076-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation