Abstract
Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.
References
Bartels, L. (1997). Correspondence: econometrics and elections. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, 195–197.
Erikson, R.S., & Wlezien, C. (2008). Are political markets really superior to polls as election predictors? Public Opinion Quarterly, online (May 2).
Hibbs, D. A. (1982). President Reagan’s mandate from the 1980 elections: a shift to the right? American Politics Quarterly, 10, 387–420.
Hibbs, D. A. (2000). Bread and peace voting in U.S. presidential elections. Public Choice, 104(1–2), 149–180. doi:10.1023/A:1005292312412.
Hibbs, D. A. (2006). Voting and the macroeconomy. In D. Wittman & B. Weingast (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of political economy (pp. 565–586). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
International Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS] (2008). Iraq after the surge. Strategic Comments, 14(2), 1–2.
Nordhaus, W. (2006). Electoral victory and statistical defeat? Economics, politics, and the 2004 presidential election. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1, 313–322. doi:10.1561/100.00000014.
Powers, T. (2008). Iraq: will we ever get out? The New York Review of Books, 55(9), 13–16.
Wlezien, C., & Erikson, R. S. (2004). The fundamentals, the polls, and the presidential vote. PS: Political Science and Politics, 37(4), 747–751.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hibbs, D.A. Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election. Public Choice 137, 1–10 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-008-9333-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-008-9333-7