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Should International Migration Be Encouraged to Offset Population Aging? A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Attitudes in Europe

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Abstract

Concerns about population aging in Europe have occupied the attention of policy makers and demographers for over a decade. Some policy makers have proposed increased immigration to offset the aging of the population (i.e., replacement migration). However, demographers have estimated that a very high (and likely untenable) level of immigration would be required, and little is known about whether the national publics of Europe would support international migration as a potential solution to population aging. Using Eurobarometer data from 2006 and concurrent country-level measures from Eurostat, this study examines individual- and contextual-level factors related to public attitudes toward immigration as an effective solution to the problem of population aging in the current 27 member countries of the European Union. Results from multilevel logit analyses indicate that urban, university-educated, and childless individuals are consistently more likely than others to endorse replacement migration. Countries with more prosperous economies and proportionally fewer foreign-born residents also show more supportive attitudes. Such results echo research on anti-immigrant sentiment, suggesting considerable public resistance to population policies that might encourage large-scale immigration. At the same time, these findings show consistent patterns of endorsement despite demographers’ criticism of the concept of replacement migration and concerns about developing alternative long-term strategies.

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Notes

  1. Considering that attitudes are mental constructs which “all swim around in the same heads” (Schuman 2000, p. 304), it is plausible to assume that attitudes about replacement migration are correlated with more general attitudes toward immigration. However, while the latter type may be informing and mingling with the first one in intricate ways, the two are not to be conflated, as it is entirely possible that an individual may simultaneously express pro-immigration views and show skepticism about immigration as a tenable demographic solution to offset the processes of population aging and decline.

  2. Not only do more educated individuals face lesser direct competition from (and feel less threatened by) immigrants in their respective labor market niches, but it is also possible that they are more broad-minded and accepting of immigrants and immigration due to education’s liberalizing effect. They may also be more likely to read and follow the public discourse in the press regarding concerns about population aging and decline and replacement migration.

  3. Specifically, the individuals who are the least accepting of immigrants and immigration are also those who are most likely to identify with or be supportive of right-wing ideologies and politics.

  4. The high proportions of foreign nationals in these two Baltic countries should be interpreted from the framework of “citizenship struggles” within the ex-U.S.S.R. space (Brubaker 1992), specifically the exclusion of the Russian-speaking populations in these two states from Estonian/Latvian citizenship following the breakup of the Soviet federation.

  5. Luxembourg is also a special case, considering its small territorial size and the large presence of foreign nationals employed by the EU and international institutions.

  6. Although the Eurobarometer 66.3 survey was administered in 29 national settings, we excluded data from Croatia and Turkey from our analyses because the survey instruments used in these two countries had omitted the question on replacement migration that is at the center of this study.

  7. The use of single-item measures in attitudinal research is generally criticized with regard to complex theoretical constructs. However, when the meaning of the construct is straightforward (Wanous et al. 1997), or in situations where a singular survey question is informative enough to be holistic (Youngblut and Casper 1993), measurement with a single item is appropriate.

  8. These were as follows: “1 = tend to agree,” “2 = tend to disagree,” “3 = it depends (spontaneous),” and “4 = DK.”

  9. Created from the following questionnaire item: “How old were you when you stopped full-time education?”

  10. The procedure of grand-mean centering eases the interpretation of the coefficients (see e.g., Hox 2002, pp. 54–57; Raudenbush and Bryk 2002, pp. 34–35).

  11. We use the formula proposed by Kreft and de Leeuw (1998) for the explained between-country variance: (unrestricted error − restricted error)/unrestricted error.

  12. The value is calculated for 2006 in Purchasing Power Standards. The mean for EU-27 is 100 (Source: Eurostat).

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  1. Department of Sociology and Criminology & Law, Center for European Studies, University of Florida, 3219 Turlington, P.O. Box 117330, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA

    Alin M. Ceobanu & Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox

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  1. Alin M. Ceobanu
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Ceobanu, A.M., Koropeckyj-Cox, T. Should International Migration Be Encouraged to Offset Population Aging? A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Attitudes in Europe. Popul Res Policy Rev 32, 261–284 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-012-9260-7

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