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A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

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Abstract

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

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Notes

  1. A detailed examination of the latest phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations and a suite of climate reanalyses indicate that the coupled models recreate this recent warming. Observations indicate, however, that the 1999–2011 period is associated with an exceptionally strong western-to-central tropical Pacific SST gradient, increased western Pacific sea level heights, and an intensification of the Walker circulation. The interaction between strong gradient events and ENSO enhances the impact of La Niña events in Africa (Williams and Funk 2011; Hoell and Funk 2013) and supports the threshold we used to analyze drying trends in Africa relative to the 1998 event.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported through USGS cooperative agreement #G09AC000001 “Monitoring and Forecasting Climate, Water and Land Use for Food Production in the Developing World,” with funding from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, Decisions award #NN10AN26I for “A Land Data Assimilation System for Famine Early Warning,” and SERVIR award #NNH12AU22I for “A Long Time-Series Indicator of Agricultural Drought for the Greater Horn of Africa”; USAID Office of Food for Peace, award #AID-FFP-P-10-00002 for “Famine Early Warning Systems Network Support”; and the USGS Land Change Science Program. The work was also partially supported by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Climate Scene Investigators (CSI)—Transitions Program Grant: A Global Standardized Precipitation Index Supporting the US Drought Portal and the Famine Early Warning System Network. We would also like to acknowledge Jim Regetz and Alex Zvoleff for statistical and computing consultation and Shuang Yang for assisting in our hot spot analysis literature review.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106-4060, USA

    David López-Carr, Gregory Husak & Joel Michaelsen

  2. Department of Geography and Geology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 102 DeLoach Hall, 601 South College Road, Wilmington, NC, 28403-5944, USA

    Narcisa G. Pricope

  3. National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis (NCEAS), University of California Santa Barbara, 735 State Street Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA

    Juliann E. Aukema

  4. Department of Family and Preventative Medicine, Center for Wireless and Population Health Systems, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, San Diego, CA, 92093, USA

    Marta M. Jankowska

  5. United States Geological Survey, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106-4060, USA

    Christopher Funk

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  1. David López-Carr
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  2. Narcisa G. Pricope
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  3. Juliann E. Aukema
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Correspondence to David López-Carr.

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Narcisa G. Pricope—co-lead author.

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López-Carr, D., Pricope, N.G., Aukema, J.E. et al. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide. Popul Environ 35, 323–339 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0

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