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Intensity attenuation for active crustal regions

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Abstract

We develop globally applicable macroseismic intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for earthquakes of moment magnitude M W 5.0–7.9 and intensities of degree II and greater for distances less than 300 km for active crustal regions. The IPEs are developed for two distance metrics: closest distance to rupture (R rup) and hypocentral distance (R hyp). The key objective for developing the model based on hypocentral distance—in addition to more rigorous and standard measure R rup—is to provide an IPE which can be used in near real-time earthquake response systems for earthquakes anywhere in the world, where information regarding the rupture dimensions of a fault may not be known in the immediate aftermath of the event. We observe that our models, particularly the model for the R rup distance metric, generally have low median residuals with magnitude and distance. In particular, we address whether the direct use of IPEs leads to a reduction in overall uncertainties when compared with methods which use a combination of ground-motion prediction equations and ground motion to intensity conversion equations. Finally, using topographic gradient as a proxy and median model predictions, we derive intensity-based site amplification factors. These factors lead to a small reduction of residuals at shallow gradients at strong shaking levels. However, the overall effect on total median residuals is relatively small. This is in part due to the observation that the median site condition for intensity observations used to develop these IPEs is approximately near the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program CD site-class boundary.

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Acknowledgments

Discussion of preliminary results with Daniel Garcia, Georgia Cua, and Paul Earle were very valuable throughout this study in addition to their thoughtful reviews of this manuscript. Nick Horspool and Clive Collins are thanked for their additional reviews that helped improve this manuscript. We also thank Dino Bindi and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive feedback. Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith 1991) was used to generate all maps within the manuscript. Trevor Allen publishes with the permission of the Chief Executive Officer of Geoscience Australia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy Division, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    Trevor I. Allen

  2. National Earthquake Information Center, US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, USA

    David J. Wald

  3. Synergetics, Inc., Fort Collins, CO, USA

    C. Bruce Worden

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  1. Trevor I. Allen
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  2. David J. Wald
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Correspondence to Trevor I. Allen.

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Allen, T.I., Wald, D.J. & Worden, C.B. Intensity attenuation for active crustal regions. J Seismol 16, 409–433 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9278-7

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