Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

  • NEURO-EPIDEMIOLOGY
  • Published:
European Journal of Epidemiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001–2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

APC:

Age period cohort model

BSE:

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy

EU:

European Union

MBM:

Meat and bone meal

OIE:

Office International des Epizooties

OR:

Odds ratio

R 0 :

Basic reproduction number

SRM:

Specified risk material

UK:

United Kingdom

vCJD:

variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease

References

  1. Will RG, Ironside JW, Zeidler M, Cousens SN, Estibeiro K, Alperovitch A, et al. A new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK. Lancet. 1996;347(9006):921–5.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Wilesmith JW, Wells GAH, Cranwell MP, Ryan JBM. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological studies. Vet Rec. 1988;123:638–44.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  3. Wilesmith JW, Ryan JBM, Hueston WD. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: case–control studies of calf feeding practices and meat and bonemeal inclusion in proprietary concentrates. Res Vet Sci. 1992;52:325–31.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Heim D, Wilesmith JW. Surveillance of BSE. Arch Virol Suppl. 2000;16:127–33.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. de Koeijer A, Heesterbeek H, Schreuder B, Oberthür R, Wilesmith JW, Van Roermund H, et al. Quantifying BSE control by calculating the basic reproduction ratio R 0 for the infection among cattle. J Math Biol. 2004;48(1):1–22.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Arnold ME, Wilesmith JW. Estimation of the age-dependent risk of infection to BSE of dairy cattle in Great Britain. Prev Vet Med. 2004;66(1–4):35–47.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Ru G, Maurella C, Ponti AM, Ingravalle F, Caramelli M. Epidemiological study of the decline of BSE in Italy. Vet Rec. 2007;161:511–4.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Morignat E, Ducrot C, Roy P, Cohen C, Calavas D. Prevalence of BSE in cattle found dead euthanased or emergency slaughtered on farms in western France in 2000–2001 and 2002. Vet Rec. 2004;155:481–6.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. La Bonnardière C, Calavas D, Abrial D, Morignat E, Ducrot C. Estimating the trend of the French BSE epidemic over six birth cohorts through the analysis of the abattoir screening in 2001 and 2002. Vet Res. 2004;35:299–308.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Schwermer H, Heim D. Cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born in Switzerland before and after the ban on the use of bovine specified risk material in feed. Vet Rec. 2007;160(3):73–7.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Woolhouse MEJ, Anderson RM. The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics. Philos Trans Royal Soc B Lond. 1997;352:803–38.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Ducrot C, Arnold M, de Koeijer A, Heim D, Calavas D. Review on the epidemiology and dynamics of BSE epidemics. Vet Res. 2008;39:15.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Saegerman C, Speybroeck N, Vanopdenbosch E, Wilesmith J, Vereecken K, Berkvens D. Evolution de l’âge moyen lors de la détection des bovins atteints d’encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB): un indicateur utile du stade de la courbe épidémique d’un pays. Epidémiologie et santé animale. 2005;47:123–39.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Saegerman C, Speybroeck N, Vanopdenbosch E, Wilesmith JW, Berkvens D. Trends in age at detection in cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Belgium: an indicator of the epidemic curve. Vet Rec. 2006;159(18):583–7.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Supervie V, Costagliola D. The unrecognised French BSE epidemic. Vet Res. 2004;35:349–62.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. de Koeijer AA, Schreuder BEC, Bouma AM. Factors that influence the age distribution of BSE cases: potentials for age targetting in surveillance. Livest Prod Sci. 2002;76:223–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. European Food Safety Authority. Risk for Human and Animal Health related to the revision of the BSE Monitoring regime in some Member States, Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Biological Hazards (Question No EFSA-Q-2008-007), Adopted on 10 July 2008. EFSA J ©. 2008;762:1–47.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Cohen-Sabas CH, Heim D, Zurbriggen A, Stärk KD. Age-period-cohort analysis of the Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Switzerland. Prev Vet Med. 2004;66(1–4):19–33.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Gavier-Widén D, Stack MJ, Baron T, Balachandran A, Simmons M. Diagnosis of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in animals: a review. J Vet Diagn Invest. 2005;17(6):509–27.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Grassi J, Maillet S, Simon S, Morel N. Progress and limits of TSE diagnostic tools. Vet Res. 2008;39(4):33.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Biacabe AG, Morignat E, Vulin J, Calavas D, Baron TGM. Atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathies, France, 2001–2007. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14(2):298–300.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Clayton D, Schifflers E. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age-period and age-cohort models. Stat Med. 1987;6(4):449–67.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Mason KO, Mason WM, Winsborough HH, Poole WK. Some methodological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. Am Sociol Rev. 1973;38:242–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Barrett JC. The redundant factor method and bladder cancer mortality. J Epidemiol Commun Health. 1978;32(4):314–6.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. McCullagh P, Nelder J-A, editors. Generalized linear models. London: Chapman and Hall; 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  26. de Koeijer AA. Analyzing BSE transmission to quantify regional risk. Risk Anal. 2007;27(5):1095–103.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was based on data collected through active surveillance programmes on BSE organized at the EU level. The study was conducted and funded within the framework of Neuroprion NoE (FOOD-CT-2004-506578), risk and control group, coordinated by Thomas Hagenaars.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christian Ducrot.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ducrot, C., Sala, C., Ru, G. et al. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective. Eur J Epidemiol 25, 411–419 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-010-9455-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-010-9455-3

Keywords

Navigation