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Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches

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Abstract

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand.

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Notes

  1. Direct revenue is the direct expenditure from people making beach trips for items such as gas and parking, food and drinks from stores, restaurants, equipment rentals, beach sporting goods, beach-related lodging, and incidentals.

  2. Data Review and Nourishment Need Assessment, prepared for Los Angeles County Dept of Beaches and Harbors by HPA Inc., September 1997, received directly from Los Angeles County. See Los Angeles County Dept of Beaches and Harbors 2007 for most recent data overview.

  3. For example, see West et al. (2001) though they find the impacts of SLR on storm damage are likely small (5% or so) these losses could still be large in absolute terms.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Guido Franco and Susi Moser for their feedback, the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program for its financial support, and Kim Sterrett of the California Department of Boating and Waterways, which provided initial funding to collect and analyze the beach width data used in the modified Southern California Beach Valuation model. Help with beach width data was provided by Dr. Anthony Orme, James Zoulas, Carla Chenualt Grady, and Hongkyo Koo. Richard MacKenzie helped us with beach slope data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Nicholas Institute at Duke University, Duke University, P.O. Box 90335, Durham, NC, 27708, USA

    Linwood Pendleton

  2. Department of Economics, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Avenue, San Francisco, CA, 94132, USA

    Philip King

  3. Cascade Econometrics, 4509 230th Way SE, Sammamish, WA, 98075, USA

    Craig Mohn

  4. Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, 6182 Steele Hall, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA

    D. G. Webster

  5. Ziman Center, University of California, Los Angeles, 110 Westwood Pl, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-0001, USA

    Ryan Vaughn

  6. Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA

    Peter N. Adams

Authors
  1. Linwood Pendleton
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  2. Philip King
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  3. Craig Mohn
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  4. D. G. Webster
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  5. Ryan Vaughn
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  6. Peter N. Adams
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Linwood Pendleton.

Additional information

This research was funded by a grant from the California Energy Commission’s PIER Program established the California Climate Change Center and the California Department of Boating and Waterways. A version of this paper previously appeared as California Energy Commission Publication CEC-500-2009-033-D.

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Pendleton, L., King, P., Mohn, C. et al. Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches. Climatic Change 109 (Suppl 1), 277–298 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0309-0

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