Abstract
Low-elevation islands face threats from sea level rise (SLR) and increased storm intensity. Evidence of endangered species’ population declines and shifts in vegetation communities are already underway in the Florida Keys. SLR predictions indicate large areas of these habitats may be eliminated in the next century. Using the Florida Keys as a model system, we present a process for evaluating conservation options for rare and endemic taxa. Considering species characteristics and habitat, we assess central issues that influence conservation options. We contrast traditional and controversial options for two animal and two plant species giving special emphasis to perceptions of ecological risk and safety from SLR and suggest courses of action. Multiple strategies will be required to spread extinction risk and will be effective for different time periods. Global climate change presents an uncertain, perhaps no-analog future that will challenge land managers and practitioners to re-evaluate equilibrium-state-conceived laws and policies not only for these taxa, but for many facing similar threats. To embrace conservation in a changing world will require a new dialogue that includes controversial ideas, a review of existing laws and policies, and preparation for the oncoming change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Armstrong DP, Seddon PJ (2008) Directions in reintroduction biology. Trends Ecol Evol 23:20–25
Ashley MV, Willson MF, Pergams ORW et al (2003) Evolutionarily enlightened management. Biol Conserv 111:115–123
Baguette M (2004) The classical metapopulation theory and the real, natural world: a critical appraisal. Basic Appl Ecol 5:213–224
Barrett-Lennard EG (2003) The interaction between waterlogging and salinity in higher plants: causes, consequences and implications. Plant Soil 253:35–54
Bender MA, Knutson TR, Tuleya RE et al (2010) Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense atlantic hurricanes. Science 327:454–458
Bouzat JL (2010) Conservation genetics of population bottlenecks: the role of chance, selection, and history. Cons Gen 11:463–478
Bradley K, Saha S (2009) Post-hurricane responses of rare plant species and vegetation of pine rocklands in the lower Florida Keys. Report submitted to USFWS National Key Deer Refuge, Florida
Chapron G, Samelius G (2008) Where species go, legal protections must follow. Science 322:1049
Craig RK (2010) Stationarity is dead—long live transformation: five principles for climate change adaptation law. Harvard Environ Law Rev 34:9–73
Crouse AL (2005) Genetic analysis of the endangered silver rice rat (Oryzomys palustris natator) and Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri). M.S. thesis, Texas A & M University
Coonan TJ, Varsik A, Lynch C, Schwemm CA (2010) Cooperative conservation: zoos and in situ captive breeding for endangered Island fox Urocyon littoralis ssp. Int Zoo Yearb 44:165–172
Dalrymple SE, Banks E, Stewart GB, Pullin AS (2011) A meta-analysis of threatened plant reintroductions from across the globe. In: Maschinski J, Haskins KE (eds) Plant reintroduction in a changing climate: promises and perils. Island Press, Washington DC (in press)
Davidson I, Simkanin C (2008) Skeptical of assisted colonization. Science 322:1048–1049
Donoghue JF (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Clim Change (this volume)
Etterson JR (2004) Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. II. Genetic architecture of three populations reciprocally planted along an environmental gradient in the Great Plains. Evolution 58:1459–1471
Faulhaber CA (2003) Updated distribution and reintroduction of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. M.S. thesis, Texas A & M University
Falk DA, Millar CI, Olwell M (eds) (1996) Restoring diversity: strategies for reintroduction of endangered plants. Island Press, Washington DC
Fischer J, Lindenmayer DB (2000) An assessment of the published results of animal relocations. Biol Conserv 96:1–11
Forys EA, Humphrey SR (1999a) Use of population viability analysis to evaluate management options for the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit. J Wildl Manage 63:251–260
Forys EA, Humphrey SR (1999b) The importance of patch attributes and context to the management and recovery of an endangered lagomorph. Landsc Ecol 14:177–185
Gordon DR (1994) Translocation of species into conservation areas: a key for natural resource managers. Nat Areas J 14:31–37
Griffiths RA, Pavajeau L (2008) Captive breeding, reintroduction, and conservation of amphibians. Conserv Biol 22:852–861
Guerrant EO Jr, Havens K, Maunder M (2004) Ex situ plant conservation: supporting species survival in the wild. Island Press, Washington
Halpin PN (1997) Global climate change and natural-area protection: management responses and research directions. Ecol Appl 7:828–843
Hanski IA (1998) Metapopulation dynamics. Nature 396:41–49
Hanski I, Ovaskainen O (2000) The metapopulation capacity of a fragmented landscape. Nature 404:755–758
Hanski I, Moilanen A, Gyllenberg M (1996) Minimum viable metapopulation size. Am Nat 147:527–541
Hoegh-Guldberg O, Hughes L, McIntyre S et al (2008) Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science 321:345–346
Hogg JT, Forbes SH, Steele BM et al (2006) Genetic rescue of an insular population of large mammals. Proc R Soc B 273:1491–1499
Hunter ML (2007) Climate change and moving species: furthering the debate on assisted colonization. Conserv Biol 21:1356–1358
IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) (1998) Guidelines for re-introductions. Prepared by the IUCN/SSC Re-introduction Specialist Group. IUCN (http://www.iucnsscrsg.org/)
Joly JL, Fuller N (2009) Advising Noah: a legal analysis of assisted migration. 39 Environ Law Rep 10413
Johnson WE, Onorato DP, Roelke ME et al (2010) Genetic restoration of the Florida Panther. Science 329:1641–1645
Jump AS, Peñuelas J (2005) Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecol Lett 8:1010–1020
Karim MF, Mimura N (2008) Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh. Glob Environ Change 18:490–500
Kinnison MT, Hairston NG Jr (2007) Eco-evolutionary conservation biology: contemporary evolution and the dynamics of persistence. Funct Ecol 21:444–454
Lande R (1993) Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity, and random catastrophes. Am Nat 142:911–927
Lande R (1995) Mutation and conservation. Conserv Biol 9:782–791
Lidz BH, Shinn EA (1991) Paleoshorelines, reefs, and a rising sea: South Florida U.S.A. J Coast Res 7:203–229
Liu H, Menges ES (2005) Winter fires promote greater vital rates of an endemic herb of the Lower Florida Keys than summer fires. Ecol 86:1483–1495
Liu H, Menges ES, Quintana-Ascenio PF (2005) Population viability analysis of Chamaecrista keyensis: effects of fire season and frequency. Ecol Appl 15:210–221
Lopez RR (2001) Population ecology of Florida Key deer. Ph.D. dissertation, Texas A & M University, College Station
Lynch M, Lande R (1993) Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. In: Kareiva PM, Kingsolver JG, Huey RB (eds) Biotic interactions and global change. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, pp 234–250
Maschinski J (2006) Implications of population dynamic and metapopulation theory for restoration. In Falk D, Palmer M, Zedler J (eds) Foundations of restoration ecology. Island Press, Washington, pp 59–85
Maschinski J, Duquesnel J (2007) Successful reintroductions of the endangered long-lived Sargent’s cherry palm, Pseudophoenix sargentii, in the Florida Keys. Biol Conserv 134:122–129
Maschinski J, Goodman JL, Powell D (2009) Assessment of population status and causes of decline for Pilosocereus robinii (Lem.) Byles & G.D. Rowley in the Florida Keys. Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, South Florida Ecological Services Office, Vero Beach, FL
Maschinski J, Haskins KE (eds) (2011) Plant reintroduction in a changing climate: promises and perils. Island Press, Washington DC (in press)
Maunder M (1992) Plant reintroduction: an overview. Biodivers Conserv 1:51–61
Maunder M, Hughes C, Hawkins JA et al (2004) Hybridization in ex situ plant collections: conservation concerns, liabilities and opportunities. In: Guerrant EO Jr, Havens K, Maunder M (eds) Ex situ plant conservation: supporting species survival in the wild. Island Press, Washington, pp 325–364
McLachlan JS, Hellmann JJ, Schwartz MW (2007) A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conserv Biol 21:297–302
Menges ES, Guerrant EO Jr, Hamze S (2004) Effects of seed collection on the extinction risk of perennial plants. In: Guerrant EO Jr, Havens K, Maunder M (eds) Ex situ plant conservation: supporting species survival in the wild. Island Press, Washington, pp 305–324
Milton SJ, Botn WJ, Du Plessis MA et al (1999) A protocol for plant conservation by translocation in threatened lowland fynbos. Conserv Biol 13:735–743
Minteer BA, Collins JP (2010) Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change. Ecol Appl 20:1801–1804
Mitrovica JX, Gomez N, Clark PU (2009) The sea-level fingerprint of west Antarctic collapse. Science 323:753
Moritz C (1999) Conservation units and translocations: strategies for conserving evolutionary processes. Hereditas 130:217–228
Mousavi ME, Irish JL, Frey AE et al (2010) Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and SLR on coastal flooding. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0
Mullan B, Marvin G (1999) Zoo culture, 2nd edn. Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London
Noss R (2001) Beyond Kyoto: forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conserv Biol 15:578–590
Overpeck JT, Weiss JL (2009) Projections of future sea level becoming more dire. PNAS 106:21461–21462
Overpeck JT, Webb RS, Webb T III (1992) Mapping eastern North American vegetation change of the past 18 ka: no-analogs and the future. Geology 20:1071–1074
Perry ND (2006) Lower keys marsh rabbit and the silver rice rat: steps towards recovery. M.S. thesis, Texas A & M University, College Station
Rabb GB (1994) The changing role of zoological parks in conserving biological diversity. Am Zool 34:159–164
Reed DH, Frankham R (2003) Correlation between fitness and genetic diversity. Conserv Biol 17:230–237
Regan KE (2004) The need for a comprehensive approach to protecting rare plants: Florida as a case study. Nat Res J 44:125–137
Reichard S, Campbell F (1996) Invited, but unwanted. Am Nurserym (July):39–45
Reichard S, Liu H, Husby C (2011) Is managed relocation another source of biological invasion? In Maschinski J, Haskins KE (eds) Managing Eden: plant reintroduction’s promises, perils, and uses in a changing climate. Island Press, Washington DC
Ricciardi A, Simberloff D (2009) Assisted colonization is not a viable conservation strategy. TREE 24: 248–253
Richardson DM, Hellmann JJ, McLachlan JS et al (2009) Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation. PNAS 106:9721–9724
Ross MS, O’Brien JJ, Flynn LJ (1992) Ecological site classification of Florida Keys terrestrial habitats. Biotropica 24:488–502
Ross MS, O’Brien JJ, Da Silveira Lobo Sternberg L (1994) Sea level rise and the reduction in pine forests in the Florida Keys. Ecol Appl 4:144–156
Ross MS, O’Brien JJ, Ford RG et al (2009) Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 7:471–478
Schlaepfer MA, Helenbrook WD, Searing KB et al (2009) Assisted colonization: evaluating contrasting management actions (and values) in the face of uncertainty. Trends Ecol Evol 24:471–472
Seddon PJ (2010) From reintroduction to assisted colonization: moving along the conservation translocation spectrum. Restor Ecol. doi:10.1111/j.1526-100X.2010.00724.x
Seddon PJ, Armstrong DP, Maloney RF (2007) Developing the science of reintroduction biology. Conserv Biol 21:303–312
Shirey PD, Lamberti GA (2010) Assisted colonization under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conserv Let 3:45–52
Snyder NFR, Derrickson SR, Beissinger SR et al (1996) Limitations of captive breeding in endangered species recovery. Conserv Biol 10:338–348
Stanton EA, Ackerman F (2007) Florida and climate change: the costs of inaction. Tufts University. Global Development and Environment Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, Medford
Stockwell CA, Hendry AP, Kinnison MT (2003) Contemporary evolution meets conservation biology. Trends Ecol Evol 18:94–101
Storfer A (1999) Gene flow and endangered species translocations: a topic revisited. Biol Conserv 87:173–180
Templeton AR, Hemmer H, Mace G et al (1986) Local adaptation, coadaptation, and population boundaries. Zoo Biol 5:115–125
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148
Traill LW, Bradshaw CJA, Brook BW (2007) Minimum viable population size: a meta-analysis of 30 years of published estimates. Biol Conserv 139: 159–166
Travis JMJ, Smith HS, Ranwala SMW (2010) Towards a mechanistic understanding of dispersal evolution in plants: conservation implications. Divers Distrib 16:690–702
USFWS (United States Fish and Wildlife Service Southeast Region) (1999) South Florida multi-species recovery plan. A species plan—an ecosystem approach. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Atlanta
USFWS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) (2009) U.S. fish and wildlife service species assessment and listing priority assignment form date of annual review: May 16, 2009 conducted by: Paula Halupa. South Florida Ecological Services Office, Florida
Vallee LT, Hogbin T, Monks LB et al (2004) Guidelines for the translocation of threatened plants in Australia, 2nd edn. Australian Network for Plant Conservation, Canberra
Vitt P, Havens K, Kramer AT et al (2010) Assisted migration of plants: changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. Biol Conserv 143:18–27
Vuilleumier S, Possingham HP (2006) Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations? Proc R Soc B 273:1637–1642
Walters C (2004) Principles for preserving germplasm in gene banks. In: Guerrant EO Jr, Havens K, Maunder M (eds) Ex situ plant conservation: supporting species survival in the wild. Island Press, Washington, pp 113–138
Walton TL (2007) Projected sea level rise in Florida. Ocean Eng 34:1832–1840
Williams SJ, Dodd K, Gohn KK (1990) Coasts in crisis. U.S. Geologic Survey Circular no. 1075, 32 pp
Zhang K, Dittmar J, Ross MS et al (2011) Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys. Clim Change (this volume)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Maschinski, J., Ross, M.S., Liu, H. et al. Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise. Climatic Change 107, 147–167 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0083-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0083-z