Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 presents the most complete and authoritative assessment of the status of scientific knowledge on all aspects of climate change. This paper presents an updated assessment of the risks from anthropogenic climate change, based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent scientific literature published since finalisation of the AR4. Many risks are now assessed as stronger than in the AR4, including the risk of large sea-level rise already in the current century, the amplification of global warming due to biological and geological carbon-cycle feedbacks, a large magnitude of “committed warming” currently concealed by a strong aerosol mask, substantial increases in climate variability and extreme weather events, and the risks to marine ecosystems from climate change and ocean acidification. Some topics remain the subject of intense scientific debate, such as past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity and the risk of large-scale Amazon forest dieback. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations has accelerated recently, and it is expected to accelerate further in the absence of targeted policy interventions. Taken together, these findings point to an increased urgency of implementing mitigation policies as well as comprehensive and equitable adaptation policies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen RJ, Sherwood SC (2008) Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds. Nat Geosci 1(6):399–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archer D, Brovkin V (2008) The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Clim Change 90(3):283–297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goosse H (2006) Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Model 12(3–4):401–415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Esch M, Keenlyside N, Kornblueh L, Luo J-J, Yamagata T (2007) How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus A 59(4):539–561

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brauer A, Haug GH, Dulski P, Sigman DM, Negendank JF (2008) An abrupt wind shift in western Europe at the onset of the Younger Dryas cold period. Nat Geosci 1(8):520–523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J Geophys Res—Atmospheres 113:D05115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calosi P, Bilton DT, Spicer JI (2008) Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change. Biology Lett 4(1):99–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Canadell JG, Le Quere C, Raupach MR, Field CB, Buitenhuis ET, Ciais P, Conway TJ, Gillett NP, Houghton RA, Marland G (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(47):18866–18870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao L, Caldeira K (2008) Atmospheric CO2 stabilization and ocean acidification. Geophys Res Lett 35:L19609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carlson AE, Legrande AN, Oppo DW, Came RE, Schmidt GA, Anslow FS, Licciardi JM, Obbink EA (2008) Rapid early Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. Nat Geosci 1(9):620–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Guo Y (2007) Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations? Geophys Res Lett 34:L14801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Comiso JC, Parkinson CL, Gersten R, Stock L (2008) Accelerated decline in the Arctic Sea ice cover. Geophys Res Lett 35:L01703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook KH, Vizy EK (2008) Effects of twenty-first-century climate change on the Amazon rain forest. J Clim 21(3):542–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox PM, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Betts RA, Collins M, Jones CD, Jupp TE, Marengo JA, Nobre CA (2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution. Nature 453(7192):212–U7

    Google Scholar 

  • Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:14308–14312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(18):6668–6672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455(7209):92–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming—results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89(3):347–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fricker HA, Scambos T, Bindschadler R, Padman L (2007) An active subglacial water system in west antarctica mapped from space. Science 315(5818):1544–1548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gazeau F, Quiblier C, Jansen JM, Gattuso J-P, Middelburg JJ, Heip CHR (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GISS (2008) 2007 Was tied as earth’s second-warmest year

  • Goulet TL (2006) Most corals may not change their symbionts. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 321:1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ, Hooten AJ, Steneck RS, Greenfield P, Gomez E, Harvell CD, Sale PF, Edwards AJ, Caldeira K, Knowlton N, Eakin CM, Iglesias-Prieto R, Muthiga N, Bradbury RH, Dubi A, Hatziolos ME (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318(5857):1737–1742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horton R, Herweijer C, Rosenzweig C, Liu J, Gornitz V, Ruane AC (2008) Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method. Geophys Res Lett 35:L02715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos C, Agudelo P, Webster P, Curry J (2006) Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312(5770):94–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007, vol 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Published for the intergovernmental panel on climate change

  • Jones GS, Stott PA, Christidis N (2008) Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers. J Geophys Res—Atmospheres 113:D02109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khvorostyanov DV, Ciais P, Krinner G, Zimov SA (2008) Vulnerability of east Siberia’s frozen carbon stores to future warming. Geophys Res Lett 35(10)

  • Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat Geosci 1(7):359–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kossin JP, Knapp KR, Vimont DJ, Murnane RJ, Harper BA (2007) A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys Res Lett 34(4):L04815. doi:10.1029/2006GL028836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landsea CW, Harper BA, Hoarau K, Knaff JA (2006) Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313(5786):452–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence DM, Slater AG, Tomas RA, Holland MM, Deser C (2008) Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss. Geophys Res Lett 35:L11506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Quere C, Rodenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Conway TJ, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett N, Heimann M (2007) Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change. Science 316(5832):1735–1738

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(6):1786–1793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li W, Fu R, Juarez RIN, Fernandes K (2008) Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 363(1498):1767–1772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2(1):014002 (7pp). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002

    Google Scholar 

  • Lockwood M, Froehlich C (2008) Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale. Proc R Soc Lond, Ser A—Math Phys Eng Sci 464(2094):1367–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malhi Y, Roberts JT, Betts RA, Killeen TJ, Li W, Nobre CA (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319(5860):169–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews HD, Caldeira K (2008) Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophys Res Lett 35:L04705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews HD, Keith DW (2007) Carbon-cycle feedbacks increase the likelihood of a warmer future. Geophys Res Lett 34:L09702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKitrick RR, Michaels PJ (2007) Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data. J Geophys Res—Atmospheres 112:D24S09

    Google Scholar 

  • Mignone BK, Socolow RH, Sarmiento JL, Oppenheimer M (2008) Atmospheric stabilization and the timing of carbon mitigation. Clim Change 88(3–4):251–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mote TL (2007) Greenland surface melt trends 1973–2007: evidence of a large increase in 2007. Geophys Res Lett 34(22):L22507. doi10.1029/2007GL031976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker D (2006) A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban. J Clim 19(12):2882–2895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O’Neel S (2008) Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321(5894):1340–1343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810):368–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316(5825):709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V, Carmichael G (2008) Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon. Nat Geosci 1(4):221–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan V, Feng Y (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(38):14245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(24):10288–10293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rignot E, Bamber JL, Van Den Broeke MR, Davis C, Li Y, Van De Berg WJ, Van Meijgaard E (2008) Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling. Nat Geosci 1(2):106–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robine J-M, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel J-P, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331(2):171–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roe GH, Baker MB (2007) Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 318(5850):629–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohling EJ, Grant K, Hemleben CH, Siddall M, Hoogakker BAA, Bolshaw M, Kucera M (2008) High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period. Nat Geosci 1(1):38–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarelli M, Neofotis P, Wu Q, Casassa G, Menzel A, Root TL, Estrella N, Seguin B, Tryjanowski P, Liu C, Rawlins S, Imeson A (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453(7193):353–U20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santer BD, Wigley TML, Gleckler PJ, Bonfils C, Wehner MF, AchutaRao K, Barnett TP, Boyle JS, Brueggemann W, Fiorino M, Gillett N, Hansen JE, Jones PD, Klein SA, Meehl GA, Raper SCB, Reynolds RW, Taylor KE, Washington WM (2006) Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(38):13905–13910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santer BD, Mears C, Wentz FJ, Taylor KE, Gleckler PJ, Wigley TML, Barnett TP, Boyle JS, Brueggemann W, Gillett NP, Klein SA, Meehl GA, Nozawa T, Pierce DW, Stott PA, Washington WM, Wehner MF (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(39):15248–15253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saunders MA, Lea AS (2008) Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature 451(7178):557–U3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer M, Brovkin V, Cox P (2006) Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change. Geophys Res Lett 33:L10702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schellnhuber H (2008) Global warming: stop worrying, start panicking? Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(38):14239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt GA (2009) Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity. Int J Climatol Published online on 7 Jan 2009. doi:10.1002/joc.1831

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheehan P, Jones RN, Jolley A, Preston BL, Clarke M, Durack PJ, Islam SM, Whetton PH (2008) Climate change and the new world economy: implications for the nature and timing of policy responses. Glob Environ Change 18(3):380–396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn 31(1):79–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd A, Wingham D (2007) Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Science 315(5818):1529–1532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sillmann J, Roeckner E (2008) Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Clim Change 86(1–2):83–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stearns LA, Smith BE, Hamilton GS (2008) Increased flow speed on a large East Antarctic outlet glacier caused by subglacial floods. Nat Geosci 1(12):827–831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steffensen JP, Andersen KK, Bigler M, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Fischer H, Goto-Azuma K, Hansson M, Johnsen SJ, Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Popp T, Rasmussen SO, Roethlisberger R, Ruth U, Stauffer B, Siggaard-Andersen M-L, Sveinbjornsdottir AE, Svensson A, White JWC (2008) High-resolution Greenland Ice Core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years. Science 321(5889):680–684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterl A, Severijns C, Dijkstra H, Hazeleger W, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Broeke M, Burgers G, van den Hurk B, van Leeuwen PJ, van Velthoven P (2008) When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? Geophys Res Lett 35:L14703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stroeve J, Holland MM, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geophys Res Lett 34:L09501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson DWJ, Kennedy JJ, Wallace JM, Jones PD (2008) A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature. Nature 453(7195):646–U5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torn MS, Harte J (2006) Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming. Geophys Res Lett 33:L10703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNEP/WGMS (2008) Global glacier changes: facts and figures. United Nations Environment Programme, World Glacier Monitoring Service

  • Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34:L08702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Velicogna I, Wahr J (2006a) Acceleration of Greenland ice mass loss in spring 2004. Nature 443(7109):329–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Velicogna I, Wahr J (2006b) Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science 311(5768):1754–1756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veron JEN (2008) Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs 27(3):459–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahl ER, Ammann CM (2007) Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. Clim Change 85(1–2):33–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walter KM, Zimov SA, Chanton JP, Verbyla D, Chapin FS III (2006) Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature 443(7107):71–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weaver AJ, Zickfeld K, Montenegro A, Eby M (2007) Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets. Geophys Res Lett 34(19)

  • Willett KM, Gillett NP, Jones PD, Thorne PW (2007) Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence. Nature 449(7163):710–U6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams JW, Jackson ST, Kutzbach JE (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(14):5738–5742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Stott PA (2006) Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J Clim 19(17):4294–4307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T (2007) Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448(7152):461–U4

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Hans-Martin Füssel

Authors
  1. Hans-Martin Füssel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hans-Martin Füssel.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Füssel, HM. An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Climatic Change 97, 469–482 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9648-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9648-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation