Abstract
River discharge forms a major freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean, and as such it has the potential to influence the oceanic circulation. As the hydrology of Arctic river basins is dominated by cryospheric processes such as snow accumulation and snowmelt, it may also be highly sensitive to a change in climate. Estimating the water balance of these river basins is therefore important, but it is complicated by the sparseness of observations and the large uncertainties related to the measurement of snowfalls. This study aims at simulating the water balance of the Barents Sea drainage basin in Northern Europe under present and future climate conditions. We used a regional climate model to drive a large-scale hydrological model of the area. Using simulated precipitation derived from a climate model led to an overestimation of the annual discharge in most river basins, but not in all. Under the B2 scenario of climate change, the model simulated a 25% increase in freshwater runoff, which is proportionally larger than the projected precipitation increase. As the snow season is 30–50 day shorter, the spring discharge peak is shifted by about 2–3 weeks, but the hydrological regime of the rivers remains dominated by snowmelt.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2003) Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias. J Geophys Res 108(D9):4257 DOI 10.1029/2002JD002499
Arnell NW (2005) Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean. J Geophys Res 110:D07105 DOI 10.1029/2004JD005348
Bowling LC, Lettenmaier DP, Matheussen BV (2000) Hydroclimatology of the Arctic Drainage Basin. In: Lewis ELL, Jones EP, Lemke P, Prowse TD, Wadhams P (eds) The freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean, NATO Science series 2: Environmental security, vol. 70. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 57–90
Bowling LC, Lettenmaier DP, Nijssen B, Graham LP et al (2003) Simulation of high-latitude hydrological processes in the Torne–Kalix basin: PILPS Phase 2(e). 1: Experiment description and summary intercomparisons. Global Planet. Change 38:1–30
Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N’. Nature 438:655–657
Carlsson B (1999) Some facts about the Torne and Kalix River Basins. A contribution to the NEWBALTIC II workshop in Abisko, June 1999, SMHI Hydrological Report 80. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping
Clark PU, Pisias NG, Stocker TF, Weaver AJ (2002) The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature 415:863–869
Dankers R (2002) Sub-arctic hydrology and climate change: a case study of the Tana River Basin in Northern Fennoscandia, Ph.D. Thesis, Netherlands Geographical Studies 304, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
Dankers R, Christensen OB (2005) Climate change impact on snow coverage, evaporation and river discharge in the sub-Arctic Tana Basin, Northern Fennoscandia. Clim Change 69:367–392
Goodison BE, Louie PYT, Yang D (1998) WMO solid precipitation measurement intercomparison, final report, WMO/TD 872. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
Hagemann S (2002) An improved land surface parameter dataset for Global and regional climate models, MPI report 336. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
Hagemann S, Botzet M, Dümenil L, Machenhauer B (1999) Derivation of global GCM boundary conditions from 1 km land use satellite data, MPI report 289. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Ivanov VV (1999) Effects of global changes on the hydrological regime, surface water (freshwater) and estuarian ecology of the Barents Sea: Consequences for water resources and environmental threats. In: Lange MA, Bartling B, Grosfeld K (eds) Global changes and the Barents Sea region, Proceedings of the first international BASIS research conference St. Petersburg, Russia, February 22–25, 1998. Institute for Geophysics, University of Münster, Münster, pp 63–90
Jacob D (2001) A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77:61–73
Knight JR, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20708 DOI 10.1029/2005GL024233
Kwadijk JCJ (1993) The impact of climate change on the discharge of the River Rhine, Ph.D. Thesis, Netherlands Geographical Studies 171, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
Lewis ELL, Jones EP, Lemke P, Prowse TD, Wadhams P (eds) (2000) The freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean, NATO Science series 2: Environmental security vol. 70. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
Mansikkaniemi H (1970) Deposits of sorted material in the Inarijoki–Tana river valley in Lapland, Reports from the Kevo Subarctic Research Station 6. University of Turku, Turku, pp 1–63
Monteith JL (1965) Evaporation and environment. In: Fogg GE, Kohn PG (eds) Proceedings of the 19th symposium society for experimental biology on the state and movement of water in living organisms. Cambridge University Press, London, pp 205–234
Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Olson JS (1994) Global ecosystem framework-definitions. Internal Report, USGS EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Olsen L, Reite A, Riibe K, Sørensen E (1996) Finnmark county map of quaternary geology, scale 1:500,000, with description. Geological Survey of Norway, Trondheim
Peterson BJ, Holmes RH, McClelland JW, Vörösmarty CJ, Lammers RB, Shiklomanov AI, Shiklomanov IA, Rahmstorf S (2002) Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Science 298:2171–2173
Rahmstorf S (2002) Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years. Nature 419:207–214
Shiklomanov IA, Shiklomanov AI (2003) Climatic change and the dynamics of river runoff into the Arctic Ocean. Water Resour 30:593–601
Stocker TF, Raible CC (2005) Water cycle shifts gear. Nature 434:830–833
Su F, Adam JC, Bowling LC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Streamflow simulations of the terrestrial Arctic domain. J Geophys Res 110:D08112 DOI 10.1029/2004JD005518
Van der Linden S (2002) Icy rivers heating up, Modelling hydrological impacts of climate change in the (Sub)arctic, Ph.D. Thesis, Netherlands Geographical Studies 307, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
Van Deursen WPA, Kwadijk JCJ (1993 Rhineflow: an integrated GIS water balance model for the River Rhine. In: Kovar K, Nachtnebel HP (eds) Application of geographic information systems in hydrology and water resources management. Proceedings of the Conference on HYDROGIS, Vienna, Austria, IAHS publication 211, pp. 507–519
Van Deursen WPA, Kwadijk JCJ (1994) The impacts of climate change on the water balance of the Ganges Brahmaputra and Yangtze basin, RA report RA/94–160. Resource Analysis, Delft
Walsh JE, Kattsov V, Portis D, Meleshko V (1997) Arctic precipitation and evaporation: model results and observational estimates. J Climate 11:72–87
Ward RC, Robinson M (1990) Principles of hydrology. McGraw-Hill, London
Wesseling CG, Van Deursen WPA, De Wit M (1997) Large scale catchment delineation: a case study for the River Rhine basin. In: Hodgson S, Rumor M, Harts JJ (eds) Geographical Information’97. Third Joint European Conference & Exhibition on Geographical Information, Vienna, Austria, pp 487–496
Wolf A, Callaghan TV, Larson K (2008) Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region. Clim Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4
Wu P, Wood R, Stott P (2005) Human influence on increasing Arctic river discharges. Geophys Res Lett 32:L02703 DOI 10.1029/2004GL021570
Yang D, Woo M-K (1999) Representativeness of local snow data for large scale hydrologic investigations. Hydrol Process 13:1977–1988
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dankers, R., Middelkoop, H. River discharge and freshwater runoff to the Barents Sea under present and future climate conditions. Climatic Change 87, 131–153 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9349-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9349-x