Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios published by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) continue to serve as a primary basis for assessing future climate change and possible response strategies. These scenarios were developed between 1996 and 1999 and sufficient time has now passed to make it worth examining their consistency with more recent data and projections. The comparison performed in this paper includes population, GDP, energy use, and emissions of CO2, non-CO2 gases and sulfur. We find the SRES scenarios to be largely consistent with historical data for the 1990–2000 period and with recent projections. Exceptions to this general observation include (1) in the long-term, relatively high population growth assumptions; in some regions, particularly in the A2 scenario; (2) in the medium-term, relatively high economic growth assumptions in the LAM (Latin America, Africa and Middle East) region in the A1 scenario; (3) in the short-term, CO2 emissions projections in A1 that are somewhat higher than the range of current scenarios; and (4) substantially higher sulfur emissions in some scenarios than in historical data and recent projections. In conclusion, given the relatively small inconsistencies for use as global scenarios there seems to be no immediate need for a large-scale IPCC-led update of the SRES scenarios that is solely based on the SRES scenario performance vis-a-vis data for the 1990–2000 period and/or more recent projections. Based on reported findings, individual research teams could make, and in some cases already have made, useful updates of the scenarios.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amann, M.: 2002, ‘Emission trends of anthropogenic air pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere’, Conference on Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing, Honolulu, Hawaii.

  • Castles, I. and Henderson, D.: 2003, ‘The IPCC Emission scenarios: An economic-statistical critique’, Energy & Environment 14(2–3), 159–185 (27).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corcoran, T.: 2002, ‘An insult to science. Leading economists want a full review of the UN's 100-year economic models for climate change, which they say contain “material errors” that invalidate temperature forecasts’, National Post (November 27).

  • Dalton, M., O'Neill, B. C., Prskawetz, A., Jiang, L., and Pitkin, J.: 2005, Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Interim Report IR-05-025, Laxenburg, Austria.

  • De Mooij, R. and Tang, P.: 2003, Four Futures of Europe, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaffin, S. R.: 1998, ‘World population projections for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios’, Mitigation and Adapatation Strategies for Global Change 3, 133–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Global_Insight: 2003, World Overview. Global Insight, Inc, Lexington, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilderink, H. B. M.: 2004, (Population & Scenarios, Worlds to Win? Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM-MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holtsmark, B. J. and Alfsen, K. H.: 2004, ‘PPP-correction of the IPCC scenarios: Does it matter?’ Climatic Change (Accepted for publication).

  • Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell K., and Johnson, C. A.: 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA: 2002, World Energy Outlook 2002. International Energy Agency, Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA: 2003a, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971–2001 – 2003 Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA: 2003b, Energy Statistics of OECD countries / Energy Statistics of non-OECD countries, International Energy Agency, Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA: 2004, World Energy Outlook 2004. International Energy Agency, Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • IIASA: 2001, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/proj01/index.html. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, 15-7-2004.

  • IMAGE-team: 2001, The IMAGE 2.2 Implementation of the IPCC SRES Scenarios. A Comprehensive Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change and Impacts in the 21st Century. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y., Hibino, G., Shimada, K., Ishii, H., Matsui, S., and Morita, T.: 2003, ‘Application of AIM/Enduse Model to Japan’, in Climate Policy Assessment - Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling, M. Kainuma, Y. Matsuoka and T. Morita. Springer, Tokyo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S.: 2001, ‘The End of world population growth’, Nature 412, 543–545.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., Scherbov, S., and Goujon, A.: 1996, ‘World population scenarios for the 21st century’, in The Future Population of the World. What Can We Assume Today? W. Lutz. Earthscan, London: 361–396.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., and Scherbov, S.: 2004, The End of World Population Growth in the 21th Century. New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development, Earthscan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manne, A. and Richels, R.: 2003, Market Exchange Rates or Purchasing Power Parity: Does the Choice Make a Difference in the Climate Debate, Working paper 03–11. AEI-Brookings Joint Centre for Regulatory Studies.

  • Marland, G., Boden, T. A., and Andres, R. J.: 2004, Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center – Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  • McCathy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S.: 2001, Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKibbin, W. J., Peace, D., and Stegman, A.: 2004, Long-Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios, Lowy Institute, Sydney.

    Google Scholar 

  • Metz, B., Davidson, O., Swart, R., and Pan, J.: 2001, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic: 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic, N., Grübler, A., Gaffin, S., Jung, T. T., Kram, T., Morita, T., Pitcher, H., Riahi, K., Schlessinger, M., Shukla, P. R., Van Vuuren, D. P., Davis, G. Michaelis, L., Swart, R., and Victor, N.: 2003, ‘IPCC SRES revisited: A response.’ Energy & Environment 14(2–3), 187–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D.: 2005, ‘Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchaisng power parity or market exchange rates?’ IPCC Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios, IPCC Technical Support Unit WG-III, Washington DC.

  • Olivier, J. G. J.: 2004, EDGAR 3: Uncertainties. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olivier, J. G. J. and Berdowski, J. J. M.: 2001, ‘Global emissions sources and sinks’, in The Climate System. J. Berdowski, R. Guicherit and B. J. Heij. A. A. Balkema Publishers/Swets & Zeitlinger Publishers, Lisse, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olivier, J. G. J. and Peters, J. A. H. W.: 2002, ‘Uncertainties in global, regional and national emission inventories’. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases: Scientific understanding, control options and policy aspects. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium, Maastricht.

  • O'Neill, B. C.: 2004, ‘Conditional probabilistic population projections: An application to climate change’, International Statistical Review 72(2), 167–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O'Neill, B. C., Balk, D., Brickman, M., and Ezra, M.: 2001, ‘A guide to global population projections’, Demographic Research, 4(8), 203–288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O'Neill, B. C. and Desai, M.: 2004, ‘The historical accuracy of projections of U.S. energy consumption’, Energy Policy 33(8), 979–993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richels, R. G., Manne A. S., and Wigley, T. M. L.: 2004, Moving Beyond Concentrations: The Challange of Limiting Temperature Change, AEI-Brooking Joint Center for regulatory studies.

  • Scheele, E. A. and Kruger, D.: 2006, ‘Global antropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions’, Energy Journal (Accepted for Publication).

  • Shlyakhter, A. I.,Kammen, D. M., Broido, C. L., and Wilson, R.: 1994, ‘Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data’, Energy Policy, 2, 119–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smil, V.: 2000, ‘Perils of long-range energy forecasting: Reflections on looking far ahead’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, 251–264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. J., Andres, R. J., Conception, E., and Lurz, J.: 2004a, Historical Sulphur Dioxide Emissions: 1850–2000: Methods and Results, PNNL, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. J., Pitcher, H., and Wigley, T. M. L.: 2004b, ‘Future sulphur dioxide emissions’, Climatic Change, (Accepted).

  • Stern, D. I.: 2003, Global Sulfur Emissions in the 1990s. Renselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmer, H.: 2005, ‘PPP vs. MER: A view from the World Bank’. IPCC Expert Meeting on Emission Scenarios, Washington D.C., IPCC Technical Support Unit WG-III.

  • UN: 1998. World Population Projections to 2150. United Nations, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2005, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. CD-ROM Edition – Extended Dataset (United Nations publications, Sales No. E.05.XIII.12)

  • UNEP: 2002. Global Environment Outlook 3. EarthScan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • US.BoC: 2005. International Data Base – Updated 26 April 2005, US.Bureau of the Census. accessed 16 December 2003.

  • US.DoE: 2003, International Energy Outlook, US Department of Energy — Energy Information Administration, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • US.DoE: 2004a, International Energy Outlook, US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • US.DoE: 2004b, Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Petroleum, Natural Gas, Coal, and the Flaring of Natural Gas, All Countries, 1980–2002, US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren, D. P., Fengqi, Z., De Vries, B., Kejun, J., Graveland, C., and Yun, L.: 2003, ‘Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century – exploration of baseline development and mitigation options’, Energy Policy 31, 369–387.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster, M. D., Babiker, M. H., Mayer, M., Reilly, J. M., Harnisch, J., Hyman, R., Sarofim, M. C., and Wang, C.: 2002, ‘Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models’, Atmospheric Environment 36(22), 3659–3670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weyant, J. P., De la Chesnaye, F. C., and B. G.: 2006, ‘Overview of EMF – 21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Change’, Energy Journal (Accepted for publication).

  • WorldBank: 2004, World Economic Prospects 2004, Worldbank, Washington DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • WorldBank: 2005, World Development Indicators, - CD-ROM.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  2. International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Brian C. O'Neill

  3. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

    Brian C. O'Neill

Authors
  1. Detlef P. van Vuuren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Brian C. O'Neill
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Detlef P. van Vuuren.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

van Vuuren, D.P., O'Neill, B.C. The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections. Climatic Change 75, 9–46 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9031-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9031-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation