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Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

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Abstract

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

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Acknowledgements

This project was funded by CSIRO, the CRC for Australian Weed Management and the Australian Government’s Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility, and supported by the Biosecurity Queensland ‘Four Tropical Weeds’ group. John Ludwig, Graham Harrington and Travis Sydes reviewed the paper and provided valuable comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Tropical Forest Research Centre, P.O. Box 780, Atherton, QLD, 4883, Australia

    Helen T. Murphy, B. D. Hardesty, C. S. Fletcher, D. J. Metcalfe & D. A. Westcott

  2. CRC for Australian Weed Management, Adelaide, SA, Australia

    Helen T. Murphy & S. J. Brooks

  3. Tropical Weeds Research Centre, Biosecurity Queensland, P.O. Box 187, Charters Towers, QLD, 4820, Australia

    S. J. Brooks

Authors
  1. Helen T. Murphy
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  2. B. D. Hardesty
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  3. C. S. Fletcher
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  4. D. J. Metcalfe
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  5. D. A. Westcott
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  6. S. J. Brooks
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Helen T. Murphy.

Appendix A

Appendix A

See Figs. A1, A2

Fig. A1
figure A1

Dispersal curve used in model

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Fig. A2
figure A2

Curves for (a) probability of becoming reproductively mature and (b) number of seeds produced from age since maturation

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Murphy, H.T., Hardesty, B.D., Fletcher, C.S. et al. Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests. Biol Invasions 10, 925–936 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-008-9246-x

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