Abstract
Mortality analysis of tree populations is widely applied to forest science studies. When mortality analysis is applied to forest inventories, the use of the variable of tree age is not common due to the difficulty of measuring age data censored in successive observations. The purpose of this study is to apply age-based mortality analysis, i.e., survival analysis, to the individual tree populations in a natural forest. The study site was the secondary natural stand of 0.26 ha dominated by fir (Abies firma), hemlock (Tsuga sieboldii), and oak (Quercus serrata) in the Boso peninsula, Japan. First, we measured the ages of the trees with diameter at breast height greater than or equal to 5 cm using a RESISTOGRAPH. Then, tree mortality probabilities of both non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimates and parametric probability distributions of Gamma and Weibull were estimated by applying survival analysis techniques to the tree age data. The results implied that the survival analyses could be implemented not only by the non-parametric estimates in any cases but also by the common parametric distributions of Gamma and Weibull in cases in which the tree mortality probability distribution had a monotonously decreasing shape as observed in the immature natural stand in the study site.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amateis RL, Burkhart HE, Walsh TA (1997) Modeling survival in juvenile and mature loblolly pine plantations. For Ecol Manag 13:170–174
Antos JA, Parish R (2002) Dynamics of an old-growth, fire-initiated, subalpine forest in southern interior British Columbia: tree size, age, and spatial structure. Can J For Res 32:1935–1946
Antos JA, Parish R, Conley K (2000) Age structure and growth of the tree-seedling bank in subalpine spruce-fir forests of south-central British Columbia. Am Midl Nat 143:342–354
Avery TE, Burkhart HE (1994) Forest measurements. McGraw-Hill, New York
Bigler C, Bugmann H (2004) Predicting the time of tree death using dendrochronological data. Ecol Appl 14:902–914
Blandon P (1991) Gentan probability and censored sample theory (I). J Jpn For Soc 73:187–196
Buford MA, Hafley WL (1985) Probability distributions as models for mortality. For Sci 31:331–341
Costello LR, Quarles SL (1999) Detection of wood decay in blue gum and elm: an evaluation of the RESISTOGRAPH® and the portable drill. J Arboric 25:311–318
Cox DR, Oakes D (1984) Analysis of survival data. Chapman & Hall, London
Daniels LD, Marshall PL, Carter RE, Klinka K (1995) Age structure of Thuja plicata in the tree layer of old-growth stands near Vancouver, british columbia. NW Sci 69:175–183
Flewelling J, Monserud RA (2002) Comparing methods for modeling tree mortality. In: Crookston L, Havis RN (eds) Second forest vegetation simulator conference. RMRS-P-25. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO, pp 169–177
Fujikake I (2000) An analyses of harvesting activities in a forest management entity using harvesting age distribution (tentative translation by author). Doctoral thesis, Kyoto University
Fujikake I (2003) Estimation of Gentan probability based on the forest resource table. Proc Inst Stat Math 51:95–109
Glover GR, Hool JN (1979) A basal area ratio predictor of loblolly pine plantation mortality. For Sci 25:275–282
Hamilton DA (1986) A logistic model of mortality in thinned and unthinned mixed conifer stands of northern Idaho. For Sci 32:989–1000
Hamilton DA (1990) Extending the range of applicability of an individual tree mortality model. Can J For Res 20:1212–1218
He F, Alfaro RI (2000) White pine weevil attack on white spruce: a survival time analysis. Ecol Appl 10:225–232
Hiroshima T (2006) Study on the methodology of calculating mean and variance of felling age in forest planning. Jpn J For Plann 40:139–149
Ishibashi S, Shibano S, Shibata S (1987) The age and diameter growth on selection forest in the Tokyo University Forest in Hokkaido. Trans Jpn For Soc 98:129–130
Kabaya H (1975) Ecological studies on the vegetation of the Boso mountains-I. Distribution and structure of the natural fir-hemlock forests. Bull Tokyo Univ For 67:51–62
Kaji M (1975) Studies on the ecological status of Abies firma forest in the Boso peninsula. Bull Tokyo Univ For 68:1–23
Kalbfleisch JD, Prentice RL (1980) The statistical analysis of failure time data. Wiley, New York
Kaplan EL, Meier P (1958) Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc 53:457–481
Kendig F, Hutton R, Kawakatsu H, Matsuno H (1983) Life spans or how long things last. Kodansya, Tokyo
Klein JP, Moeschberger ML (1997) Survival analysis. Springer, New York
Kleinbaum DG, Klein M (2011) Survival analysis: a self-learning text. Statistics for biology and health, 3rd edn. Springer, New York
Komiyama A, Hayakawa T, Ishikawa T (1986) Vegetation dynamics of a subalpine forest on Mt. Ontake (XVII) Tree age distribution. Trans Jpn For Soc 97:299–300
Kuroda A, Kai T, Mukai S, Toyohara G (2003) Floristic composition and vertical distribution of Abies firma-Tsuga sieboldii forest of the Mt. Misen primeval forest on Miyajima Island, SW Japan. Hikobia 14:15–24
Kuuluvainen T, Mäki J, Karjalainen L, Lehtonen H (2002) Tree age distributions in oldgrowth forest sites in Vienansalo wilderness, eastern Fennoscandia. Silva Fenn 36:169–184
Lawless JF (1982) Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. Wiley, New York
Lorimer CG (1980) Age structure and disturbance history of a southern Appalachian virgin forest. Ecology 61:1169–1184
Mast JN, Fule PZ, Moore MM, Covington WW, Waltz AEM (1999) Restoration of presettlement age structure of an Arizona ponderosa pine forest. Ecol Appl 9:228–239
Monserud RA, Sterba H (1999) Modeling individual tree mortality for Austrian forest species. For Ecol Manag 113:109–123
Morse BW, Kulman HM (1984) Plantation white spruce mortality: estimates based on aerial photography and analysis using a life-table format. Can J For Res 14:195–200
Nobori Y, Ohgane E, Fujiwara K, Sasa K (1983) Managerial studies concerned with the improvement of forest types in natural forests—analysis of stand compositions. Trans Jpn For Soc 94:141–142
Rebertus AJ, Veblen TT (1993) Structure and tree-fall gap dynamics of old-growth Nothofagus forests in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. J Veg Sci 4:641–654
Rinn F (1989) Eine neue Bohrmethode zur Holzuntersuchung. Holzzentralbratt 115:529–530
Rinn F, Schweingruber FH, Schar E (1996) Resistograph and X-ray density charts of wood computative evaluation if drill resistance profiles and X-ray density charts of different wood species. Holzforschung 50:303–311
Seido K (1991) Age of hinoki (Chamaecyparis obtusa) natural stands and their distribution on Aokigahara, Mt. Fuji. Trans Mtg Kanto Branch Jpn For Soc 42:33–36
Shibano S, Ozawa Y, Nagumo H (1984) Studies on the management of natural forests (II) The age structure and growth in natural forests. Trans Jpn For Soc 95:161–162
Suzuki T (1959a) Yield prediction with the transition probability. Trans Mtg Kanto Branch Jpn For Soc 11:36–38
Suzuki T (1959b) Yield prediction in forest management by Markov matrix. Bull Res Coll Agric Vet Nihon Univ 11:178–189
Suzuki T (1966) Forest transition as a stochastic process (I). J Jpn For Soc 48:436–439
Suzuki T (1972) Application of stochastic process in forestry (I). J Jpn For Soc 54:234–243
Suzuki T (1973) Application of stochastic process in forestry (II). J Jpn For Soc 55:234–237
Suzuki T (1979) Forest management. Asakurashoten, Tokyo
Suzuki T (1984) The Gentan probability, a model for the improvement of the normal forest concept and forest planning. In Nagumo H (ed) Proceedings of the IUFRO Symposium on Forest Management Planning and Managerial Economics, pp 12–24
Tanaka K (1979) On the estimation of the Gentan probability from the type I censored sample. Trans Jpn For Soc 90:123–124
Tatsuhara S, Minowa M (1988) Studies on the transition of diameter distribution in coniferous plantations—an estimation of mortality probabilities by diameter class. Bull Tokyo Univ For 80:203–255
Tiryana T, Tatsuhara S, Shiraishi N (2011) Modeling survival and destruction of Teak plantations in Java, Indonesia. J For Plann 16:35–44
Umemura T, Suzuki T (1974) Forest transition as a stochastic process (V). J Jpn For Soc 56:195–204
Villalba R, Veblen TT (1997) Regional patterns of tree population age structures in northern Patagonia: climatic and disturbance influences. J Ecol 85:113–124
Volney WJA (1998) Ten-year tree mortality following a jack pine budworm outbreak in Saskatchewan. Can J For Res 28:1784–1793
Wallenius T, Kuuluvainen T, Heikkilä R, Lindholm T (2002) Spatial tree age structure and fire history in two old-growth forests in eastern Fennoscandia. Silva Fenn 36:185–199
Wang S, Chiu C, Liu C (2003) Application of the drilling resistance method for annual ring characteristics: evaluation of Taiwania trees grown with different thinning and pruning treatments. J Wood Sci 49:116–124
Waters WE (1969) Life-table approach to analysis of insect impact. J For 67:300–304
Woodall CW, Grambsch PL, Thomas W (2005) Applying survival analysis to a large-scale forest inventory for assessment of tree mortality in Minnesota. Ecol Model 189:199–208
Worbes M, Staschel R, Roloff A, Junk WJ (2003) Tree ring analysis reveals age structure, dynamics and wood production of a natural forest stand in Cameroon. For Ecol Manag 173:105–123
Wyckoff PH, Clark JS (2000) Predicting tree mortality from diameter growth: a comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Can J For Res 30:156–167
Wyckoff PH, Clark JS (2002) The relationship between growth and mortality for seven co-occurring tree species in the southern Appalachian Mountains. J Ecol 90:604–615
Yamashita K, Nagao H, Kato H, Ido H (2006) Estimating variations in wood density by drilling resistance. Bull FFPRI 5:61–68
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by MEXT 21780142: Grant-in-aid for young scientists (B) by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan. We also appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions by anonymous reviewers.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Hiroshima, T. Applying age-based mortality analysis to a natural forest stand in Japan. J For Res 19, 379–387 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10310-013-0428-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10310-013-0428-8