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Prediction of Alzheimer dementia with short neuropsychological instruments

  • Basic Neurosciences, Genetics and Immunology - Original Article
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Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the neuropsychological instruments in predicting Alzheimer dementia after 5 years in the context of a longitudinal population-based cohort study. A total of 585 non-demented 75-year-old individuals completed neuropsychological examination at the baseline investigation; 479 subjects were followed after 30 months and 404 after 60 months. Cognition, depression and memory complaints were evaluated with psychometric instruments. Known risk factors for Alzheimer dementia were included in the analyses. Univariate logistic regression analyses and stepwise multiple models were calculated. A combination of reduced verbal memory, reduced visual motor speed, subjective memory complaints and the APOE ε4 carriage was best in predicting incident probable Alzheimer dementia (R 2 = 0.42, ROC curve = 0.91). The model achieved a positive predictive value of 23.3%, a negative predictive value of 98.7%, a sensitivity of 82.8% and a specificity of 82.4%. Alzheimer dementia can be predicted by neuropsychological instruments measuring episodic memory and motor speed. A high percentage of 98.7% subjects at age 75 years could be predicted as remaining non-demented at age 80 years. The prediction of those unlikely to develop AD would be more important in the future to spare further expensive diagnostic testing and protective therapies in individuals at low risk.

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Acknowledgments

The Vienna Transdanube Aging (VITA) study was supported by the Ludwig Boltzmann Society and carried out at the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Aging Research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Aging Research, Langobardenstraße 122, 1220, Vienna, Austria

    Susanne Jungwirth, Silvia Weissgram, Karl Heinz Tragl & Peter Fischer

  2. Section for Medical Statistics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

    Sonja Zehetmayer & Peter Bauer

  3. Department of Psychiatry, Danube Hospital, Vienna, Austria

    Peter Fischer

Authors
  1. Susanne Jungwirth
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  2. Sonja Zehetmayer
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  3. Peter Bauer
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  4. Silvia Weissgram
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  5. Karl Heinz Tragl
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  6. Peter Fischer
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Susanne Jungwirth.

Additional information

The authors S. Jungwirth and S. Zehetmayer equally contributed to this work.

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Jungwirth, S., Zehetmayer, S., Bauer, P. et al. Prediction of Alzheimer dementia with short neuropsychological instruments. J Neural Transm 116, 1513–1521 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00702-009-0318-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00702-009-0318-6

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