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Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in the General Population

Results of the Bone and Joint Decade 2000 –2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and Its Associated Disorders

  • Best Evidence
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European Spine Journal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Study Design

Best evidence synthesis.

Objective

To undertake a best evidence synthesis on course and prognosis of neck pain and its associated disorders in the general population.

Summary of Background Data

Knowing the course of neck pain guides expectations for recovery. Identifying prognostic factors assists in planning public policies, formulating interventions, and promoting lifestyle changes to decrease the burden of neck pain.

Methods

The Bone and Joint Decade 2000 –2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) conducted a critical review of literature published between 1980 and 2006 to assemble the best evidence on neck pain. Findings fromstudiesmeeting criteria for scientific validity were abstracted into evidence tables and included in a best evidence synthesis.

Results

We found 226 articles on the course and prognostic factors in neck pain and its associated disorders. After critical review, 70 (31) of these were accepted on scientific merit. Six studies related to course and 7 to prognostic factors in the general population. Between half and three quarters of persons in these populations with current neck pain will report neck pain again 1 to 5 years later. Younger age predicted better outcome. General exercise was unassociated with outcome, although regular bicycling predicted poor outcome in 1 study. Psychosocial factors, including psychologic health, coping patterns, and need to socialize, were the strongest prognostic factors. Several potential prognostic factors have not been well studied, including degenerative changes, genetic factors, and compensation policies.

Conclusion

The Neck Pain Task Force undertook a best evidence synthesis to establish a baseline of the current best evidence on the course and prognosis for this symptom. General exercise was not prognostic of better outcome; however, several psychosocial factors were prognostic of outcome.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

    Linda J. Carroll PhD

  2. The Alberta Centre for Injury Control and Research, School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

    Linda J. Carroll PhD

  3. Institute for Work and Health, Toronto, Canada

    Sheilah Hogg-Johnson PhD & Gabrielle van der Velde DC

  4. Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

    Sheilah Hogg-Johnson PhD & Pierre Côté DC, PhD

  5. Department of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

    Gabrielle van der Velde DC

  6. Centre of Research Excellence in Improved Disability Outcomes (CREIDO), University Health Network Rehabilitation Solutions, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    Gabrielle van der Velde DC, Pierre Côté DC, PhD & Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  7. Division of Health Care Outcomes and Research, Toronto Western Research Institute, Toronto, Canada

    Gabrielle van der Velde DC

  8. Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

    Scott Haldeman DC, MD, PhD

  9. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Scott Haldeman DC, MD, PhD

  10. Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden

    Lena W. Holm DrMedSc

  11. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford , USA

    Eugene J. Carragee MD, FACS & Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  12. Orthopaedic Spine Center and Spinal Surgery Service, Stanford University Hospital and Clinics, Stanford, CA, USA

    Eugene J. Carragee MD, FACS

  13. Department of Public Health Sciences, John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

    Eric L. Hurwitz DC, PhD

  14. Department of Orthopaedics, New York University Medical Center, New York, USA

    Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  15. Department of Environmental Medicine, New York University Medical Center, New York, USA

    Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  16. Program of Ergonomics and Biomechanics, School of Medicine and Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University Medical Center, New York, USA

    Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  17. Occupational and Industrial Orthopaedic Center (OIOC), New York University, New York, NY, USA

    Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc

  18. Endocrinology, Analgesia and Inflammation, Merck & Co., Rahway, NJ, USA

    Paul M. Peloso MD, MSc, FRCP(C)

  19. Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, VanCouver, Canada

    Jaime Guzman MD, MSc, FRCP(C)

  20. Occupational Health and Safety Agency for Health care in BC, VanCouver, Canada

    Jaime Guzman MD, MSc, FRCP(C)

  21. Centre of Research Expertise in Improved Disability Outcomes (CREIDO), University Health Network Rehabilitation Solutions, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, Canada

    J. David Cassidy DC, PhD, DrMedSc

  22. Division of Health Care and Outcomes Research, Toronto Western Research Institute, Toronto, Canada

    J. David Cassidy DC, PhD, DrMedSc

  23. Departments of Public Health Sciences and Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

    J. David Cassidy DC, PhD, DrMedSc

  24. 4075 RTF, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E1, Canada

    Linda J. Carroll PhD

Authors
  1. Linda J. Carroll PhD
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  2. Sheilah Hogg-Johnson PhD
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  3. Gabrielle van der Velde DC
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  4. Scott Haldeman DC, MD, PhD
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  5. Lena W. Holm DrMedSc
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  6. Eugene J. Carragee MD, FACS
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  7. Eric L. Hurwitz DC, PhD
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  8. Pierre Côté DC, PhD
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  9. Margareta Nordin PT, DrMedSc
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  10. Paul M. Peloso MD, MSc, FRCP(C)
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  11. Jaime Guzman MD, MSc, FRCP(C)
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  12. J. David Cassidy DC, PhD, DrMedSc
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Linda J. Carroll PhD.

Additional information

The manuscript submitted does not contain information about medical device(s)/drug(s).

Corporate/Industry, Foundation, and Professional Organizational funds were received in support of this work. No benefits in any form have been or will be received from a commercial party related directly or indirectly to the subject of this manuscript.

Reprinted with permission from Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Carroll LJ, Hogg-Johnson S, van der Velde G, et al., Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in the General Population, Results of the Bone and Joint Decade 2000–2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and Its Associated Disorders, SPINE, Volume 33, Number 4S, pp S75–S82

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Carroll, L.J., Hogg-Johnson, S., van der Velde, G. et al. Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in the General Population. Eur Spine J 17 (Suppl 1), 75–82 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-008-0627-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-008-0627-8

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