Abstract
To study the ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on timing of annual events, scientists need access to data that have been collected over long time periods. High-quality long-term phenology data are rare and costly to obtain and there is therefore a need to extract this information from other available data sets. Many long-term studies on breeding birds include detailed information on individually marked parents and offspring, but do not include information on timing of breeding. Here, we demonstrate how a study of repeated standard measurements of white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus nestlings in our study system in southernmost Norway can be used for modeling nestling growth, and how this statistical model can be used to estimate timing of breeding for birds with sparser data. We also evaluate how the accuracies of nestling growth models based on different morphological traits (mass and feather length) differ depending on the nestling age, present user guidelines and demonstrate how they can be applied to an independent data set. In conclusion, the approach presented is likely to be useful for a wide variety of species, even if the preferred measurement may differ between species.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to all the people involved in the field work, especially Runar Jåbekk, Nils Helge Lorentzen, Jon Erling Skåtan and Harry Thorsen. The long-term study of the biology of the breeding dippers was conducted with support from the Directorate for Nature Management. The Swedish Research Council (VR) and the Norwegian Research Council (NFR) provided financial support (to A.L.K.N.).
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This study forms part of a larger project in which resightings and recoveries of previously ringed birds form the very basis; hence, gentle treatment of birds is of the utmost importance. Therefore, the work was conducted with respect for the animals’ wellbeing and complies with the laws and regulations for animals used in research in Norway.
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Nilsson, A.L.K., Stige, L.C., Jerstad, K. et al. To make the most of what we have: extracting phenological data from nestling measurements. Int J Biometeorol 55, 797–804 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0461-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0461-2