Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Bulletin of Volcanology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. In Maori mythology, Ruaumoko is the god of earthquakes and volcanoes

References

  • Aiuppa A, Federico C, Giudice G, Gurrieri S, Liuzzo M, Shinohara H, Favara R, Valenza M (2006) Rates of carbon dioxide plume degassing from Mount Etna volcano. J Geophys Res 111:B09207. doi:10.1029/2006JB004307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen S (1992) Volcanic hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field. MSc thesis, The University of Auckland

  • Allen SR, Smith IEM (1994) Eruption styles and volcanic hazard in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Geosci Rep Shizuoka Univ 20:5–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall WP, Miller AD, Lynch LL, Latchman JL, Stewart RC, White RA, Power JA (1998) Soufriere Hills eruption, Montserrat, 1995–1997: Volcanic earthquake locations and fault plane solutions. Geophys Res Lett 25:3397–3400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall WP, Woo G, Voight B, Baxter PJ (2003) Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 128:273–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blake S, Smith I, Wilson C, Leonard G (2006) Lead times and precursors of eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: indications from historical analogues and theoretical modelling. GNS Science Consultancy Report 2006/34

  • Brothers RN, Golson J (1959) Geological and archaeological interpretation of a section in Rangitoto ash on Motutapu Island, Auckland. NZ J Geol Geophys 2:569–577

    Google Scholar 

  • Carapezza ML, Tarchini L (2007) Accidental gas emission from shallow pressurized aquifers at Alban Hills volcano (Rome, Italy): Geochemical evidence of magmatic degassing? J Volcanol Geotherm Res 165:5–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassata WS, Singer BS, Cassidy J (2008) Laschamp and Mono Lake geomagnetic excursions recorded in New Zealand. Earth Planet Sci Lett 268:76–88. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassidy J (2006) Geomagnetic excursion captured by multiple volcanoes in a monogenetic field. Geophys Res Lett 33:L21310. doi:10.1029/2006GL027284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassidy J, Locke CA, Smith IEM (1986) Volcanic hazard in the Auckland region. NZ Geol Survey Rec 10:60–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassidy J, France SJ, Locke CA (2007) Gravity and magnetic investigation of maar volcanoes, Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 159:153–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiodini G, Frondini F (2001) Carbon dioxide degassing from the Alban Hills volcanic region, Central Italy. Chem Geol 177:67–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiodini G, Cioni R, Guidi M, Raco B, Marini L (1998) Soil CO2 flux measurements in volcanic and geothermal areas. Appl Geochem 13:135–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Condit CD, Connor CB (1996) Recurrence rates of volcanism in basaltic volcanic fields: an example from the Springerville volcanic field, Arizona. Geol Soc Am Bull 108:1225–1241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Connor CB, Hill BE (1995) Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. J Geophys Res 100:10107–10125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Connor CB, McBirney AR, Furlan C (2006) What is the probability of explosive eruption at a long-dormant volcano? In: Mader HM, Coles SG, Connor CB, Connor LJ (eds) Statistics in Volcanology. IAVCEI Spec Pub 1:231–242

    Google Scholar 

  • Conway FM, Connor CB, Hill BE, Condit CD, Mullaney K, Hall CM (1998) Recurrence rates of basaltic volcanism in SP cluster, San Francisco volcanic field, Arizona. Geology 26:655–658

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cronin SJ (2008) The Auckland Volcanic Scientific Advisory Group during exercise Ruaumoko: observations and recommendations. In: Civil Defence Emergency Management: Exercise Ruaumoko. Auckland: Auckland Regional Council

  • Daag AS, Tubianosa BS, Newhall CG, Tungol NM, Javier D, Dolan MT, Delos Reyes PJ, Arboleda RA, Martinez MMA, Regalado MTM (1996) Monitoring sulphur dioxide emission at Mount Pinatubo. In: Newhall CG, Punongbayan RS (eds) Fire and mud: eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. University of Washington Press, Seattle, pp 409–414

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerlach TM, McGee KA, Elias T, Sutton AJ, Doukas MP (2002) Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kilauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir. J Geophys Res 107:2189. doi:10.1029/2001JB000407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillies D (2000) Philosophical theories of probabilities. W H Newton-Smith, Balliol College

  • Harlow DH, Power JA, Laguerta EP, Ambubuyog G, White RA, Hoblitt RP (1996) Precursory seismicity and forecasting of the June 15 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. In: Newhall CG, Punongbuyan RS (eds) Fire and mud, eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. University of Washington Press, Seattle, pp 285–306

    Google Scholar 

  • Horspool N, Savage M, Bannister S (2006) Implications for intraplate volcanism and back-arc deformation in northwestern New Zealand, from joint inversion of receiver functions and surface waves. Geophys J Int 166:1466–1483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton BF, Wilson CJN, Rosenberg MD, Smith IEM, Parker RJ (1996) Mixed deposits of complex magmatic and phreatomagmatic volcanism: an example from Crater Hill, Auckland, New Zealand. Bull Volcanol 58:59–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaquet O, Carniel R, Sparks S, Thompson G, Namar R, Di Cecca M (2006) DEVIN: A forecasting approach using stochastic methods applied to the Soufriere Hills Volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 153:97–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaquet O, Connor C, Connor L (2008) Probabilistic modeling for long-term assessment of volcanic hazards. Nucl Technol 163:180–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Jousset P, Chouet B (2008) Long-period earthquakes in Bouillante hydrothermal system, French Antilles. Geophys Res Abstr 10: EGU2008-A-04175

  • Kermode LO (1992) Geology of the Auckland urban area. Scale 1:50 000. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences Geological Map 2

  • Kilburn CRJ (2003) Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 125:271–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein G (1998) Sources of power: how people make decisions. MIT, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Lambeck K, Chappell J (2001) Sea level change through the last glacial cycle. Science 292:679–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewicki JL, Fischer ML, Hilley GE (2008) Six-week time series of eddy covariance CO2 flux at Mammoth Mountain, California: Performance evaluation and role of meteorological forcing. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 171:178–190. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.11.029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipman PW, Moore JG, Swanson DA (1981) Bulging of the north flank before the May 18 eruption: geodetic data. In: Lipman PW, Mullineaux DR (eds) The eruptions of Mount St Helens, Washington. USGS Prof Pap 1250:143–156

    Google Scholar 

  • Magill CR, Blong R (2005) Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand: I. Methodology and hazard investigation. Bull Volcanol 67:331–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magill CR, McAneney KJ, Smith IEM (2005) Probabilistic assessment of vent locations for the next Auckland Volcanic Field event. Math Geol 37:227–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Woo G (2007) Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L22310. doi:10.1029/2007GL031922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Woo G (2009) Principles of volcanic risk metrics: theory and the case study of Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy). J Geophys Res 114:B03213. doi:10.1029/2008JB005908

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Zaccarelli L (2006) A quantitative model for the timesize distribution of eruptions. J Geophys Res 111:B04204. doi:10.1029/2005JB003709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Gasparini P, Newhall C, Boschi E (2004) Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius. J Geophys Res 109:B11201. doi:10.1029/2004JB003155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Furlan C (2006) A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment. In: Mader HM, Coles SG, Connor CB, Connor LJ (eds) Statistics in Volcanology. IAVCEI Spec Pub 1:31–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2008) BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull Volcanol 70:623–632. doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller C, Hurst AW, Beavan RJ (2001) GPS strategies for detecting signs of a new eruption site within a volcanic field. In: Stewart C (ed) Cities on volcanoes 2. Auckland, New Zealand, 12–16 February 2001: abstracts. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences Information Series 49:98

  • Milligan J (1977) A geophysical study of Rangitoto volcano. MSc thesis, University of Auckland

  • Molloy C, Shane P, Augustinus P (2009) Eruption recurrence rates in a basaltic volcanic field based on tephra layers in maar sediments: implications for hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Geol Soc Am Bull (in press)

  • Needham A (2009) The eruptive history of Rangitoto Island, Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. MSc thesis, University of Auckland

  • Newhall CG, Hoblitt RP (2002) Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20. doi:10.1007/s004450100173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Power JA, Jolly AD, Nye CJ, Harbin ML (2002) A conceptual model of the Mount Spurr magmatic system from seismic and geochemical observations of the 1992 Crater Peak eruption sequence. Bull Volcanol 64:206–218. doi:10.1007/s00445-002-0201-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reilly BM, Evans AT, Schaider JJ, Das K, Calvin JE, Moran LA, Roberts RR, Martinez E (2002) Impact of a clinical decision rule on hospital triage of patients with suspected acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department. J Am Med Assoc 288:342–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samsonov S, Tiampot K, Manville V, Jolly G (2008) Deformations occurring in the city of Auckland, New Zealand as mapped by the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar. Second Workshop on the Use of Remote Sensing Techniques for Monitoring Volcanoes and Seismogenic Areas, USEReST 2008 11–14 Nov 2008

  • Sandiford A, Alloway B, Shane P (2001) A 28 000–6600 cal yr record of local and distal volcanism preserved in a paleolake, Auckland, New Zealand. NZ J Geol Geophys 44:323–336

    Google Scholar 

  • Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Zaccarelli L (2004) A new perspective in identifying the precursory patterns of volcanic eruptions. Bull Volcanol 66:263–275. doi:10.1007/s00445-003-0309-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandri L, Guidoboni E, Marzocchi W, Selva J (2009) Bayesian Event Tree (BET) for eruption forecasting at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to 1631 eruption. Bull Volcanol. doi:10.1007/s00445-008-0261-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Searle EJ (1964) City of volcanoes. A geology of Auckland. Longman Paul, New Zealand

    Google Scholar 

  • Shane P, Hoverd J (2002) Distal record of multi-sourced tephra in Onepoto Basin, Auckland, New Zealand: implications for volcanic chronology, frequency and hazards. Bull Volcanol 64:441–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shane P, Sandiford A (2003) Paleovegetation of marine isotope stages 4 and 3 in northern New Zealand and the age of the widespread Rotoehu Tephra. Quat Res 59:420–429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherburn S, Scott B, Olsen J, Miller C (2007) Monitoring seismic precursors to an eruption from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. NZ J Geol Geophys 50:1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith IEM, Allen SR (1993) Volcanic hazards at the Auckland Volcanic Field. Ministry of Civil Defence Volcanic Hazard Information Series 5

  • Stevens NF, Miller CA, Williams CA (2004) InSAR as a volcano monitoring tool for Auckland City, New Zealand. Eos Trans AGU 85, Fall Meet Suppl GS1A-0061

  • Viscusi WK (1992) Fatal tradeoffs: public and private responsibilities for risk. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Woo G (2008) Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions. Nat Hazards 45:87–97. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9171-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was carried out through support from the New Zealand Earthquake Commission (EQC) and the Foundation for Science and Technology grant to GNS Science under contract CO5X0402. We thank Brad Scott, Ian Smith, Colin Wilson and Steve Sherburn for helpful discussions during the process of setting up the code. Graham Leonard provided valuable assistance with map generation. We also thank Phil Shane for providing constructive comments on an earlier draft. Reviewers Christina Magill, Chris Newhall and two anonymous reviewers provided many constructive comments and greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. We are grateful to Jocelyn McPhie for her thoroughness in editorial handling.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Jan Lindsay

  2. Institute of Earth Science and Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Jan Lindsay & Robert Constantinescu

  3. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

    Warner Marzocchi

  4. GNS Science, Wairakei Research Centre, Taupo, New Zealand

    Gill Jolly

  5. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy

    Jacopo Selva & Laura Sandri

Authors
  1. Jan Lindsay
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Warner Marzocchi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Gill Jolly
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Robert Constantinescu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Jacopo Selva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Laura Sandri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan Lindsay.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: J. McPhie

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lindsay, J., Marzocchi, W., Jolly, G. et al. Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’. Bull Volcanol 72, 185–204 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-009-0311-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-009-0311-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation